LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group

● quote 298 min ago
SportsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $656.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.0MEvent: LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly35Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:483 trades$831.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 317 min agoofficial metadata 301 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$21.1K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$32.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDplus KIA (NO)$70.9K@ 100¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$8.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$8.7K
6h
+$335.4K
tracked
$831.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: +$21.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 298 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 317 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 301 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between T1 and Dplus KIA in the LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group, initially scheduled for August 14 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win the match against Dplus KIA. This market will resolve to "Dplus KIA" if Dplus KIA win the match against T1. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Sisyphus.2 linked markets · $189.1K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $126.2K gross
0x04b1…d2243 linked markets · $81.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 85.0¢8h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY T1@ 25.0¢8h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Dplus KIA@ 76.0¢8h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY T1@ 79.0¢9h ago
15m INVALIDATED -21.0pp1h INVALIDATED -64.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $1.7K$231 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8.7K
6h+$335.4K
24h+$385.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h34.1¢▼ below by 34.1pp
VWAP 7d34.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$44.7K
75¢
$45.1K
70¢
$2.3K
65¢
$559
60¢
$35.7K
55¢
$234.1K
50¢
$75.3K
45¢
$20.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$4.2K
20¢
$13.2K
15¢
$4.3K
10¢
$7.7K
5¢
$8.9K
0¢
← now
$340.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$70.9K@ 99.9¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 7 hours ago
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$10.1K@ 99.9¢
MD140x7d78…29a5
🐋about 7 hours ago
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$31.6K@ 99.9¢0xf201…527e🐋about 8 hours ago
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$10.8K@ 99.9¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋about 8 hours ago
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$12.4K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 8 hours ago
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$20.9K@ 99.9¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋about 8 hours ago
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$15.0K@ 99.9¢0xf377…4159🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYDplus KIA (NO)$19.8K@ 99.0¢0xf201…527e🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYDplus KIA (NO)$18.8K@ 47.1¢0x8a86…4998🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYT1 (YES)$11.1K@ 53.0¢0x8f3a…5ad0🐋about 9 hours ago
SELLDplus KIA (NO)$20.3K@ 42.2¢0x8a86…4998🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYT1 (YES)$13.1K@ 56.0¢0x1660…5598🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYT1 (YES)$17.4K@ 79.0¢0x24be…ad1a🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYDplus KIA (NO)$10.5K@ 21.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYT1 (YES)$34.6K@ 80.4¢
retroactivesource0x85d5…45ee
🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYT1 (YES)$11.8K@ 59.0¢0xdd88…dadb🐋about 12 hours ago
BUYT1 (YES)$21.0K@ 60.0¢0x85bb…9ada🐋about 18 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BUY VWAP 73.6¢·3 fills
BUY VWAP 58.8¢·6 fills
0x8a86…4998Dplus KIA$33.4K
BUY VWAP 37.9¢·5 fills
0xf201…527eDplus KIA$29.3K
BUY VWAP 70.3¢·4 fills
BUY VWAP 58.1¢·4 fills
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 79.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
0x04b1…d224Dplus KIA$11.0K
BUY VWAP 46.1¢·2 fills
BUY VWAP 68.1¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.