LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner

● quote 222 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $279.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $720.8KEvent: LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
99.9¢
YES
1.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly39Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:136 trades$357.3K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 237 min agoofficial metadata 216 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5.6K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$45.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$30.0K@ 100¢·0xa7e2…9e36

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.2K
6h
+$6.5K
tracked
$357.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$5.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 222 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 237 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 216 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 17:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 14 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win Game 1 against HANJIN BRION. This market will resolve to "HANJIN BRION" if HANJIN BRION win Game 1 against Nongshim Red Force. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $107.3K gross
fkgggg2mouzfuria2 linked markets · $74.0K gross
0x04b1…d2242 linked markets · $35.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 72.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 76.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY HANJIN BRION@ 39.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.8K$2.7K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$4.2K
6h+$6.5K
24h+$6.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h74.6¢▲ above by 25.3pp
VWAP 7d74.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$144.4K
90¢
$1.6K
85¢
$31
80¢
$2.8K
75¢
$7.7K
70¢
$3.2K
65¢
$3
60¢
$0
55¢
$164.0K
50¢
$33.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$27.7K@ 99.9¢0xf201…527e🐋about 7 hours ago
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$30.0K@ 99.9¢0xa7e2…9e36🐋about 7 hours ago
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$19.8K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$14.0K@ 98.4¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$13.4K@ 57.0¢0x000e…f7e9🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYHANJIN BRION (NO)$10.3K@ 43.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$11.3K@ 57.0¢
fkgggg2mouzfuria0x52ec…a6f3
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$11.4K@ 57.0¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$11.2K@ 56.0¢0xf201…527e🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$11.5K@ 56.0¢0xf23c…9f81🐋about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115HANJIN BRION$21.0K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·3 fills
0x000e…f7e9Nongshim Red Force$15.6K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·2 fills
0xf201…527eNongshim Red Force$14.8K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
5e46hNongshim Red Force$14.0K
BUY VWAP 98.4¢·1 fill
fkgggg2mouzfuriaNongshim Red Force$12.8K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·2 fills
0xf23c…9f81Nongshim Red Force$11.5K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
zb8Nongshim Red Force$11.4K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
Zzzz87Nongshim Red Force$10.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.