LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Group Stage

● quote 208 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $293.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $728.7KEvent: LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Group Stage
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly31Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets9Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:278 trades$274.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 257 min agoofficial metadata 198 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCTBC Flying Oyster (NO)$48.1K@ 100¢·5e46h

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.5K
6h
+$76.2K
tracked
$274.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$20.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 208 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 257 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 198 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 15:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Seeding match between MVK Esports and CTBC Flying Oyster in the LCP Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MVK Esports" if MVK Esports win the match against CTBC Flying Oyster. This market will resolve to "CTBC Flying Oyster" if CTBC Flying Oyster win the match against MVK Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h2 linked markets · $121.9K gross
johnbaster5 linked markets · $25.1K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $22.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY MVK Esports@ 59.0¢6h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY CTBC Flying Oyster@ 47.0¢6h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $99$296 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.5K
6h+$76.2K
24h+$76.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h27.1¢▼ below by 26.1pp
VWAP 7d27.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$7.0K
85¢
$1.9K
80¢
$1.9K
75¢
$1.2K
70¢
$1.2K
65¢
$250
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$36.8K
50¢
$36.9K
45¢
$19.9K
40¢
$12.5K
35¢
$5.9K
30¢
$4.6K
25¢
$5.8K
20¢
$2.0K
15¢
$4
10¢
$0
5¢
$3.8K
0¢
← now
$131.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLCTBC Flying Oyster (NO)$20.0K@ 99.9¢0xf377…4159🐋about 6 hours ago
SELLCTBC Flying Oyster (NO)$48.1K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYCTBC Flying Oyster (NO)$27.8K@ 98.6¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

5e46hCTBC Flying Oyster$27.8K
BUY VWAP 98.6¢·1 fill
111111111115CTBC Flying Oyster$19.3K
BUY VWAP 45.6¢·7 fills
0xf201…527eMVK Esports$17.8K
BUY VWAP 55.7¢·5 fills
0xf23c…9f81MVK Esports$10.9K
BUY VWAP 52.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.