LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner

● quote 255 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $488.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $614.5KEvent: LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
99.9¢
YES
0.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly16Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:186 trades$219.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 286 min agoofficial metadata 245 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$17.7K@ 52¢·0xdf44…70f1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.0K
6h
−$10.3K
tracked
$219.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 255 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 286 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 245 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-14 17:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and HANJIN BRION in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 14 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win Game 2 against HANJIN BRION. This market will resolve to "HANJIN BRION" if HANJIN BRION win Game 2 against Nongshim Red Force. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $107.3K gross
fkgggg2mouzfuria2 linked markets · $74.0K gross
0x04b1…d2242 linked markets · $35.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 34.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nongshim Red Force@ 53.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $684$62 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$1.0K
6h$10.3K
24h$10.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.5¢▲ above by 32.4pp
VWAP 7d67.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$63.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.1K
80¢
$2.9K
75¢
$1.3K
70¢
$7
65¢
$9.6K
60¢
$14.6K
55¢
$43.9K
50¢
$47.2K
45¢
$17.6K
40¢
$9.1K
35¢
$6.1K
30¢
$1.2K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$15.0K@ 99.9¢0x57b4…b46b🐋about 7 hours ago
SELLNongshim Red Force (YES)$11.6K@ 58.0¢0x04b1…d224🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$10.9K@ 54.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$13.7K@ 55.0¢0xf201…527e🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$17.7K@ 52.2¢0xdf44…70f1🐋about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xdf44…70f1Nongshim Red Force$17.7K
BUY VWAP 52.2¢·1 fill
0xf201…527eNongshim Red Force$16.0K
BUY VWAP 55.7¢·2 fills
111111111115Nongshim Red Force$10.9K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.