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Pistons vs. Heat

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $134.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Pistons vs. Heat

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

75.5¢
Pistons
24.5¢
Heat
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 20 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:162 trades$656.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pistons · $67.4K net·20 wallets(2🐋)·$111.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPistons$246.8K@ 55¢·googleplay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Pistons pressure: $64.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$64.7K
6h
+$487.0K
tracked
$656.4K

20 verified profitable wallets: Pistons · $67.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 60

Since latest large flow: +21.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 21.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pistons or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons".

•If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 8:00PM ET: If the Pistons win, the market will resolve to "Pistons". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii2 linked markets · $67.4K gross
iDARKenjoyer4 linked markets · $14.8K gross
HomeRunHazard10 linked markets · $13.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Pistons@ 55.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pistons@ 54.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Pistons@ 53.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pistons; negative values favor Heat. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPistons · $64.7K
6hPistons · $487.0K
24hPistons · $551.8K

Pistons price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pistons price. Heat fills are converted to the complementary Pistons probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current75.5¢
VWAP 24h56.86¢▲ above by 18.6pp
VWAP 7d56.77¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pistons price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$14.3K
75¢
← now
$47.2K
70¢
$14.0K
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$1.7K
55¢
$256.0K
50¢
$326.0K
45¢
$3.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPistons$13.8K@ 54.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPistons$177.4K@ 54.39¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPistons$246.8K@ 55.0¢
googleplay0xe9b7…ce7b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYPistons$14.8K@ 53.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYPistons$61.8K@ 52.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

googleplayPistons$424.3K
BUY VWAP 54.74¢·2 fills
Lakersfan111Pistons$61.8K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
mooseborzoiiPistons$41.1K
BUY VWAP 77.02¢·21 fills
Talvez10Pistons$17.7K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Pistons$13.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.