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Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger

● quote 153 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $72.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $660.5KEvent: Japan Women's Open: Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger
99.9¢
Ann Li
0.1¢
Lilli Tagger
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution26Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 28 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:347 trades$273.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 158 min agoofficial metadata 154 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lilli Tagger · $6.9K net·28 wallets·$26.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAnn Li$70.0K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$75.2K
tracked
$273.4K

28 verified profitable wallets: Lilli Tagger · $6.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +36.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 153 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 158 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 154 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ann Li and Lilli Tagger in the Japan Women's Open, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ann Li' if Ann Li advances against Lilli Tagger. This market will resolve to 'Lilli Tagger' if Lilli Tagger advances against Ann Li. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
DiversifiedBS2 linked markets · $2.1K gross
0x0f18…238b2 linked markets · $312 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ann Li@ 64.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Lilli Tagger DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $37 → $511 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ann Li; negative values favor Lilli Tagger. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAnn Li · $0
6hLilli Tagger · $75.2K
24hLilli Tagger · $64.3K

Ann Li price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ann Li price. Lilli Tagger fills are converted to the complementary Ann Li probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h75.4¢▲ above by 24.5pp
VWAP 7d75.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ann Li price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$102.2K
90¢
$743
85¢
$5.2K
80¢
$6.5K
75¢
$9.3K
70¢
$15.3K
65¢
$13.5K
60¢
$18.8K
55¢
$32.0K
50¢
$61.4K
45¢
$2.0K
40¢
$413
35¢
$735
30¢
$5.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAnn Li$13.9K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLAnn Li$70.0K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAnn Li$23.8K@ 54.5¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLilli Tagger$14.7K@ 45.4¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KkunnAnn Li$46.9K
BUY VWAP 57.7¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesLilli Tagger$18.7K
BUY VWAP 39.8¢·22 fills
robustmstLilli Tagger$14.7K
BUY VWAP 45.4¢·1 fill
RN1Lilli Tagger$10.6K
BUY VWAP 41.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.