PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

● quote 22s ago
Sports→Closes: 2 monthsLiquidity: $200.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.7KEvent: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
6.8¢
YES
93.3¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$6.1K trackedsource coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 766 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $2.0K net·3 wallets·$2.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$15.3K@ 92¢·0x42fa…1fc7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$6.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $2.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 766 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3814…17bc2 linked markets · $21.9K gross
Bigggggggg9 linked markets · $20.2K gross
macrosteaks2 linked markets · $5.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $6.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.8¢
VWAP 24h6.9¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d7.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.9K
5¢
← now
$29.6K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$15.3K@ 91.9¢0x42fa…1fc7🐋—14 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0.1¢$164.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0.1¢$154.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
7.5¢$147.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
61.3¢$126.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0.1¢$125.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0.1¢$113.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0.1¢$95.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2.4¢$66.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.