Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

● quote just now

Sports→SoccerCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $199.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $148.0KEvent: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

3.3¢

YES

96.7¢

0.6¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution95Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:48 trades$22.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 242 min agoofficial metadata 15s ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $15.3K net·13 wallets·$15.3K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$21.1K@ 98¢·DonaldinhoTrumpito

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$11.9K

tracked

$22.4K

13 verified profitable wallets: NO · $15.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 242 minutes old.
•Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://www.francefootball.fr/

Outcome meaning

•If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Recent definition/status changes

DEADLINE CHANGED · 22d ago

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Lordpengu2 linked markets · $40.8K gross

gmgmgmgmg10 linked markets · $35.5K gross

e46m39 linked markets · $33.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $11.9K

24hYES · $2.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current3.3¢

VWAP 24h3.6¢▼ below by 0.3pp

VWAP 7d2.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

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55¢