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Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul

● quote 463 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $281.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $692.7KEvent: Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul

Indicative prices · 463 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Corentin Moutet
99.9¢
Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$163.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 24%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 465 min agoofficial metadata 466 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tommy Paul · $9.1K net·16 wallets(1🐋)·$40.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCorentin Moutet$15.0K@ 33¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$163.7K

16 verified profitable wallets: Tommy Paul · $9.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 463 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 465 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 466 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Corentin Moutet and Tommy Paul in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Corentin Moutet' if Corentin Moutet advances against Tommy Paul. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Corentin Moutet. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $3.8K gross
BlasTesla2 linked markets · $1.3K gross
ferdinand22 linked markets · $1.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Corentin Moutet@ 40.0¢9h ago
15m INVALIDATED -21.0pp1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Tommy Paul DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $41.9K → $2.8K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Corentin Moutet; negative values favor Tommy Paul. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCorentin Moutet · $0
6hCorentin Moutet · $0
24hTommy Paul · $10.8K

Corentin Moutet price VWAP

Volume-weighted Corentin Moutet price. Tommy Paul fills are converted to the complementary Corentin Moutet probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h24.99¢▼ below by 24.9pp
VWAP 7d24.96¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Corentin Moutet price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$31.5K
35¢
$8.2K
30¢
$26.0K
25¢
$29.6K
20¢
$31.4K
15¢
$4.6K
10¢
$8.9K
5¢
$9.7K
0¢
← now
$16.8K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCorentin Moutet$12.1K@ 41.11¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYCorentin Moutet$15.0K@ 32.89¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$10.0K@ 77.37¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstCorentin Moutet$27.1K
BUY VWAP 36.12¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesTommy Paul$22.0K
BUY VWAP 72.49¢·17 fills
beeemwTommy Paul$10.0K
BUY VWAP 77.37¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.