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Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov

● quote 338 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $898.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov

Indicative prices · 338 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Alexander Bublik
1.0¢
Karen Khachanov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:265 trades$413.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 340 min agoofficial metadata 339 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karen Khachanov · $26.4K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$138.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlexander Bublik$33.4K@ 50¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$18.5K
tracked
$413.2K

17 verified profitable wallets: Karen Khachanov · $26.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 338 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 340 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 339 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Karen Khachanov in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Bublik' if Alexander Bublik advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Alexander Bublik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $28.6K gross
0xd329…b8232 linked markets · $341 gross
0x0eb0…f1952 linked markets · $140 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alexander Bublik7h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Alexander Bublik@ 53.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Karen Khachanov DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $14.7K → $10.0K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Bublik; negative values favor Karen Khachanov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexander Bublik · $0
6hKaren Khachanov · $18.5K
24hKaren Khachanov · $113.1K

Alexander Bublik price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Bublik price. Karen Khachanov fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Bublik probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h56.35¢▲ above by 43.5pp
VWAP 7d56.33¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Bublik price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$78.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.0K
75¢
$0
70¢
$24
65¢
$14.4K
60¢
$194
55¢
$34.0K
50¢
$130.3K
45¢
$46.4K
40¢
$3.4K
35¢
$23.7K
30¢
$64.0K
25¢
$19.8K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlexander Bublik$17.0K@ 99.9¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLAlexander Bublik$18.4K@ 99.9¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLAlexander Bublik$11.3K@ 99.9¢0xf12f…b30f🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLAlexander Bublik$33.4K@ 50.32¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYAlexander Bublik$20.0K@ 48.15¢
tiger1050x0d23…2d56
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesKaren Khachanov$35.7K
BUY VWAP 58.76¢·19 fills
robustmstAlexander Bublik$26.0K
BUY VWAP 35.54¢·3 fills
tiger105Alexander Bublik$20.0K
BUY VWAP 48.15¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardKaren Khachanov$15.4K
BUY VWAP 67.25¢·4 fills
ferrariChampions2026Karen Khachanov$15.1K
BUY VWAP 45.40¢·5 fills
ferrariChampions2026Alexander Bublik$11.2K
BUY VWAP 54.27¢·2 fills
dmoralezKaren Khachanov$10.1K
BUY VWAP 48.03¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.