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US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $63.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $127.2KEvent: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina
85.5¢
Alex Michelsen
14.5¢
Federico Cina
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets87Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$58.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $22.9K net·6 wallets(2🐋)·$26.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$12.8K@ 81¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$11
6h
+$6.1K
tracked
$58.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: Alex Michelsen · $22.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Federico Cina in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Federico Cina. This market will resolve to 'Federico Cina' if Federico Cina advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Federico Cina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFederico Cina · $11
6hAlex Michelsen · $6.1K
24hAlex Michelsen · $50.6K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Federico Cina fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current85.5¢
VWAP 24h81.0¢▲ above by 4.5pp
VWAP 7d81.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$351
85¢
← now
$75
80¢
$45.7K
75¢
$13.2K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$10.6K@ 82.0¢
0b1fe0x9bb1…4dbe
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYAlex Michelsen$12.8K@ 81.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Alex Michelsen$12.8K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill
degenfrenAlex Michelsen$12.7K
BUY VWAP 81.7¢·2 fills
0b1feAlex Michelsen$10.6K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.