PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?

● quote 10s ago
Sports→Closes: about 23 hoursLiquidity: $524.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $430.5KEvent: Aston Villa FC vs. Arsenal FC
63.5¢
YES
36.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:83 trades$170.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $153.4K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$156.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$11.1K@ 37¢·plonker2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $51.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$51.8K
6h
−$100.2K
tracked
$170.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $153.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 60

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 23h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 31, 2026 If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 37.0¢40m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 37.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 37.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 37.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $51.8K
6hNO · $100.2K
24hNO · $137.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current63.5¢
VWAP 24h63.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d63.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.8K
60¢
← now
$193.4K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.1K@ 37.0¢
plonker20260x0a39…b0b9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Legacy (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
96.5¢$1.6Mpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Terence Atmane
48.0¢$1.2Mpriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
0.1¢$527.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Toby Samuel vs Tomas Machac
88.5¢$433.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby
69.5¢$406.5Kpriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$395.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open WTA: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska
72.5¢$370.5Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Detroit Tigers
90.5¢$348.7Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

plonker2026No$153.5K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·29 fills
hitfardedidiNo$12.6K
BUY VWAP 36.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.