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US Open WTA: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska

● quote 49s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $185.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $419.6KEvent: US Open WTA: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Dayana Yastremska
99.9¢
Lucrezia Stefanini
1.0¢
Dayana Yastremska
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets93Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:105 trades$172.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Lucrezia Stefanini · $77.0K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$83.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDayana Yastremska$24.5K@ 56¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Lucrezia Stefanini pressure: $7.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.7K
6h
+$79.8K
tracked
$172.4K

8 verified profitable wallets: Lucrezia Stefanini · $77.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 22.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Lucrezia Stefanini or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lucrezia Stefanini and Dayana Yastremska in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lucrezia Stefanini' if Lucrezia Stefanini advances against Dayana Yastremska. This market will resolve to 'Dayana Yastremska' if Dayana Yastremska advances against Lucrezia Stefanini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Lucrezia Stefanini@ 78.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -42.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Lucrezia Stefanini2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Lucrezia Stefanini@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Dayana Yastremska@ 55.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Dayana Yastremska UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $9.1K → $13.2K · 19s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lucrezia Stefanini; negative values favor Dayana Yastremska. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLucrezia Stefanini · $7.7K
6hLucrezia Stefanini · $79.8K
24hLucrezia Stefanini · $96.9K

Lucrezia Stefanini price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lucrezia Stefanini price. Dayana Yastremska fills are converted to the complementary Lucrezia Stefanini probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h60.3¢▲ above by 39.6pp
VWAP 7d60.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lucrezia Stefanini price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$14.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$10.7K
80¢
$51
75¢
$16.6K
70¢
$11.3K
65¢
$8.6K
60¢
$11.4K
55¢
$40.1K
50¢
$3.2K
45¢
$23.9K
40¢
$31.9K
35¢
$1
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLucrezia Stefanini$16.0K@ 56.5¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDayana Yastremska$24.5K@ 55.7¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

beachboy4Lucrezia Stefanini$64.3K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·10 fills
NiNo999Dayana Yastremska$24.5K
BUY VWAP 55.7¢·1 fill
FlaznorpLucrezia Stefanini$13.5K
BUY VWAP 78.3¢·5 fills
AGUGavaLucrezia Stefanini$12.5K
BUY VWAP 44.8¢·3 fills
zagzig123Lucrezia Stefanini$10.6K
BUY VWAP 47.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.