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US Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $236.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $675.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino
12.5¢
Thiago Agustin Tirante
87.5¢
Adrian Mannarino
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:154 trades$313.9K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Thiago Agustin Tirante · $19.8K net·7 wallets·$43.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThiago Agustin Tirante$50.0K@ 59¢·0x5f65…2036

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Adrian Mannarino SETUP
What the tape says

Adrian Mannarino pressure: $89.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$89.7K
6h
−$60.1K
tracked
$313.9K

7 verified profitable wallets: Thiago Agustin Tirante · $19.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 61

Since latest liquidity absorption: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Adrian Mannarino or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Adrian Mannarino in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 89.0¢1m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Adrian Mannarino26m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Adrian Mannarino26m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 36.0¢47m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp
Latest book event: Adrian Mannarino UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $28.8K → $25.5K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thiago Agustin Tirante; negative values favor Adrian Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdrian Mannarino · $89.7K
6hAdrian Mannarino · $60.1K
24hAdrian Mannarino · $56.2K

Thiago Agustin Tirante price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thiago Agustin Tirante price. Adrian Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Thiago Agustin Tirante probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current12.5¢
VWAP 24h65.9¢▼ below by 53.4pp
VWAP 7d65.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thiago Agustin Tirante price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$36
90¢
$3.9K
85¢
$25.2K
80¢
$1.8K
75¢
$18.5K
70¢
$76.3K
65¢
$62.5K
60¢
$25.3K
55¢
$57.3K
50¢
$6.6K
45¢
$28.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$6.1K
10¢
← now
$1.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAdrian Mannarino$25.5K@ 50.9¢
AGUGava0x0353…c2ff
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$33.9K@ 35.0¢
BillyGating0x2dfa…6f60
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante$16.0K@ 86.7¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante$16.6K@ 78.1¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLThiago Agustin Tirante$47.3K@ 74.3¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYThiago Agustin Tirante$50.0K@ 58.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BillyGatingAdrian Mannarino$63.3K
BUY VWAP 34.8¢·8 fills
0x5f65…2036Thiago Agustin Tirante$50.0K
BUY VWAP 58.9¢·1 fill
AGUGavaAdrian Mannarino$25.5K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·1 fill
0b1feThiago Agustin Tirante$17.0K
BUY VWAP 71.2¢·4 fills
afrazThiago Agustin Tirante$16.0K
BUY VWAP 86.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.