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US Open ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto

● quote 20s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $203.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $299.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Aleksandar Vukic vs Rei Sakamoto
9.0¢
Aleksandar Vukic
91.0¢
Rei Sakamoto
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly12Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:154 trades$126.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 15s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rei Sakamoto · $10.9K net·11 wallets·$25.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRei Sakamoto$24.3K@ 67¢·vvyvv

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$372
6h
−$76.4K
tracked
$126.8K

11 verified profitable wallets: Rei Sakamoto · $10.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 28 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 24.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Vukic and Rei Sakamoto in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Vukic' if Aleksandar Vukic advances against Rei Sakamoto. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Aleksandar Vukic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Rei Sakamoto2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Rei Sakamoto@ 68.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +18.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Rei Sakamoto@ 58.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Aleksandar Vukic DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $14.2K → $4.4K · 42s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aleksandar Vukic; negative values favor Rei Sakamoto. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRei Sakamoto · $372
6hRei Sakamoto · $76.4K
24hRei Sakamoto · $72.6K

Aleksandar Vukic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aleksandar Vukic price. Rei Sakamoto fills are converted to the complementary Aleksandar Vukic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current9.0¢
VWAP 24h33.6¢▼ below by 24.6pp
VWAP 7d33.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aleksandar Vukic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$43.5K
35¢
$21.2K
30¢
$38.9K
25¢
$1.5K
20¢
$13.3K
15¢
$5.1K
10¢
$5.4K
5¢
← now
$349
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRei Sakamoto$24.3K@ 67.3¢
vvyvv0xfb8f…842b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYRei Sakamoto$22.5K@ 58.7¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

vvyvvRei Sakamoto$24.3K
BUY VWAP 67.3¢·1 fill
NiNo999Rei Sakamoto$22.5K
BUY VWAP 58.7¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardRei Sakamoto$13.3K
BUY VWAP 73.4¢·4 fills
tradecraftRei Sakamoto$10.9K
BUY VWAP 61.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.