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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

● quote 32s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $797.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $541.3KEvent: LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
100.0¢
Cloud9
0.1¢
Shopify Rebellion
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 25 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:301 trades$153.0K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 12s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cloud9 · $5.8K net·25 wallets·$22.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCloud9$16.2K@ 100¢·alpheclabs

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Shopify Rebellion pressure: $44.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$44.3K
6h
−$42.7K
tracked
$153.0K

25 verified profitable wallets: Cloud9 · $5.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Shopify Rebellion or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 03:50 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win the match against Shopify Rebellion.

•This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against Cloud9.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Cloud9 and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win the match against Shopify Rebellion. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against Cloud9. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 30, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $63.6K gross
alpheclabs2 linked markets · $17.7K gross
johnbaster3 linked markets · $15.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Shopify Rebellion UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $361 → $17 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cloud9; negative values favor Shopify Rebellion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShopify Rebellion · $44.3K
6hShopify Rebellion · $42.7K
24hShopify Rebellion · $44.0K

Cloud9 price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cloud9 price. Shopify Rebellion fills are converted to the complementary Cloud9 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h73.9¢▲ above by 26.1pp
VWAP 7d73.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cloud9 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$51.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$8.1K
80¢
$2.9K
75¢
$15.6K
70¢
$22.4K
65¢
$8.5K
60¢
$13.1K
55¢
$5.5K
50¢
$234
45¢
$0
40¢
$6.6K
35¢
$122
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$3.7K
20¢
$13.0K
15¢
$745
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCloud9$16.2K@ 99.9¢
alpheclabs0xb4d2…ce99
🐋—14 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf201…527eShopify Rebellion$15.6K
BUY VWAP 29.5¢·12 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.