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US Open WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Petra Marcinko

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $7.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $262.4KEvent: US Open WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Petra Marcinko
25.0¢
Kimberly Birrell
75.0¢
Petra Marcinko
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets34Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution64Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:129 trades$95.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kimberly Birrell · $2.7K net·6 wallets·$8.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPetra Marcinko$23.8K@ 82¢·HVAB

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$30.8K
tracked
$95.4K

6 verified profitable wallets: Kimberly Birrell · $2.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 56 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Kimberly Birrell and Petra Marcinko in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kimberly Birrell' if Kimberly Birrell advances against Petra Marcinko. This market will resolve to 'Petra Marcinko' if Petra Marcinko advances against Kimberly Birrell. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Petra Marcinko@ 95.0¢5h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
Latest book event: Petra Marcinko UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $345 → $320 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Kimberly Birrell; negative values favor Petra Marcinko. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKimberly Birrell · $5
6hPetra Marcinko · $30.8K
24hPetra Marcinko · $25.7K

Kimberly Birrell price VWAP

Volume-weighted Kimberly Birrell price. Petra Marcinko fills are converted to the complementary Kimberly Birrell probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current25.0¢
VWAP 24h27.8¢▼ below by 2.8pp
VWAP 7d27.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Kimberly Birrell price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$10.6K
45¢
$1.2K
40¢
$5.0K
35¢
$9.5K
30¢
$194
25¢
← now
$23.0K
20¢
$6.3K
15¢
$39.4K
10¢
$128
5¢
$13
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPetra Marcinko$23.8K@ 82.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYPetra Marcinko$10.7K@ 81.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HVABPetra Marcinko$43.3K
BUY VWAP 80.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.