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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins

● quote 3969 min ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $293.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $423.5KEvent: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$40.3K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$40.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMinnesota Twins (NO)$42.6K@ 51¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$8.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.5K
6h
+$8.8K
tracked
$192.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$40.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 68 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 3969 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 3973 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for August 13 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $110.1K gross
0x5268…135d4 linked markets · $44.5K gross
purplegatto2 linked markets · $8.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 50.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Minnesota Twins@ 51.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$8.5K
6h+$8.8K
24h+$7.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h64.2¢▲ above by 35.7pp
VWAP 7d64.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$33.4K
90¢
$11.8K
85¢
$11.4K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$3.6K
65¢
$4.2K
60¢
$8.2K
55¢
$1.3K
50¢
$20.9K
45¢
$97.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLPhiladelphia Phillies (YES)$11.4K@ 87.0¢0xae5c…5df7🐋—3 days ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (YES)$40.3K@ 49.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—3 days ago
BUYMinnesota Twins (NO)$42.6K@ 51.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (YES)$10.0K@ 50.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75Minnesota Twins$48.3K
BUY VWAP 50.9¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Philadelphia Phillies$40.3K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
FeromontPhiladelphia Phillies$10.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.