LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner

● quote 288 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $379.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $955.0KEvent: LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:289 trades$363.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 315 min agoofficial metadata 279 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLWeibo Gaming (YES)$14.4K@ 100¢·0xf485…03ae

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.8K
6h
−$206.7K
tracked
$363.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 288 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 315 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 279 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 16 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win Game 2 against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win Game 2 against Weibo Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf030…12e23 linked markets · $65.1K gross
0xcae6…4f853 linked markets · $64.1K gross
0x48fe…b2b62 linked markets · $55.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Invictus Gaming@ 80.0¢8h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Invictus Gaming@ 71.0¢8h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 86.0¢8h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 9.0pp · near-book depth $502$423 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$12.8K
6h$206.7K
24h$206.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h54.8¢▲ above by 45.1pp
VWAP 7d54.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$126.3K
90¢
$6.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.9K
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.9K
40¢
$20.0K
35¢
$37.9K
30¢
$50.0K
25¢
$28.1K
20¢
$43.3K
15¢
$40.4K
10¢
$3.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLWeibo Gaming (YES)$12.6K@ 99.9¢0xb4c8…8f5a🐋about 5 hours ago
SELLWeibo Gaming (YES)$14.4K@ 99.9¢0xf485…03ae🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYWeibo Gaming (YES)$14.0K@ 99.0¢0x292f…7fc2🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$13.2K@ 66.0¢0xdaef…54e9🐋about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
0.1¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$949.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
25.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$675.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
72.5¢$554.8Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$535.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$431.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
100.0¢$394.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xdaef…54e9Invictus Gaming$16.2K
BUY VWAP 65.8¢·2 fills
0xf030…12e2Invictus Gaming$15.1K
BUY VWAP 72.5¢·9 fills
0xf64e…a1ddInvictus Gaming$14.2K
BUY VWAP 71.7¢·8 fills
0x292f…7fc2Weibo Gaming$14.0K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
0xf23c…9f81Invictus Gaming$10.7K
BUY VWAP 60.6¢·2 fills
crypto-ericwu2Invictus Gaming$10.2K
BUY VWAP 79.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.