Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D

● quote 59 min ago
SportsCloses: 22 minutesLiquidity: $1.9MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:343 trades$494.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 73 min agoofficial metadata 61 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY9z (YES)$66.0K@ 65¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$27.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$27.4K
6h
+$179.8K
tracked
$494.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$42.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -66.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 59 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 73 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 61 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between 9z and magic in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "9z" if 9z win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against 9z. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 16, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h3 linked markets · $137.6K gross
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $78.6K gross
0x9166…b4792 linked markets · $23.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 9z@ 67.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL 9z@ 45.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY 9z@ 65.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -20.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY 9z@ 65.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $240$55 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$27.4K
6h+$179.8K
24h+$205.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h45.3¢▼ below by 45.3pp
VWAP 7d45.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.9K
75¢
$1.9K
70¢
$2.1K
65¢
$158.3K
60¢
$89.5K
55¢
$41
50¢
$17.7K
45¢
$81.7K
40¢
$11.0K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$282
25¢
$4.5K
20¢
$7.2K
15¢
$5.8K
10¢
$573
5¢
$86
0¢
← now
$108.1K

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLmagic (NO)$50.4K@ 99.9¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUY9z (YES)$12.2K@ 67.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 3 hours ago
BUY9z (YES)$12.8K@ 67.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYmagic (NO)$22.6K@ 36.0¢0x73e3…1be9🐋about 6 hours ago
BUY9z (YES)$22.2K@ 65.0¢0xf177…5f6a🐋about 6 hours ago
BUY9z (YES)$66.0K@ 65.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋about 7 hours ago
BUY9z (YES)$10.3K@ 64.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 9 hours ago
BUY9z (YES)$22.4K@ 64.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUa9z$66.0K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 63.6¢·8 fills
0x73e3…1be9magic$22.6K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill
skyman449z$22.4K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
0x7d9d…3c52magic$13.2K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·5 fills
0x29b5…cc6cmagic$11.3K
BUY VWAP 36.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.