LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

● quote 10 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $767.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $399.1KEvent: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly83Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:114 trades$138.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLMovistar KOI (YES)$22.0K@ 100¢·alpheclabs

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$3.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$3.4K
6h
+$9.8K
tracked
$138.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$11.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 10 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
  • Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 21:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 16 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Movistar KOI. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
5e46h2 linked markets · $43.0K gross
0xcf60…a6f52 linked markets · $33.2K gross
alpheclabs2 linked markets · $23.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $2.4K$844 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$3.4K
6h+$9.8K
24h$4.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h71.1¢▲ above by 28.9pp
VWAP 7d70.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$40.1K
90¢
$2.9K
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$2.2K
75¢
$6.5K
70¢
$2.3K
65¢
$1.4K
60¢
$53
55¢
$66.0K
50¢
$15.8K
45¢
$3.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLMovistar KOI (YES)$22.0K@ 99.9¢
alpheclabs0xb4d2…ce99
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$11.2K@ 56.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1b47…d814Natus Vincere$11.7K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·4 fills
SineNooneEIMovistar KOI$11.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
0xb727…2a9dMovistar KOI$10.5K
BUY VWAP 55.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.