LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

● quote 282 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $433.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.8MEvent: LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:787 trades$709.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 314 min agoofficial metadata 270 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $36.6K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$66.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$39.1K@ 57¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.7K
6h
−$20.7K
tracked
$709.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$36.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 282 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 314 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 270 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 16 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win the match against Weibo Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf030…12e23 linked markets · $65.1K gross
0xcae6…4f853 linked markets · $64.1K gross
0x48fe…b2b62 linked markets · $55.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Invictus Gaming@ 91.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Weibo Gaming@ 48.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Invictus Gaming@ 68.0¢9h ago
15m CONFIRMED +14.0pp1h CONFIRMED +23.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Invictus Gaming@ 64.0¢9h ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp1h CONFIRMED +27.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 9.0pp · near-book depth $325$44 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.7K
6h$20.7K
24h$38.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h26.9¢▼ below by 25.9pp
VWAP 7d26.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$18.4K
75¢
$33.1K
70¢
$13.7K
65¢
$9.2K
60¢
$6.4K
55¢
$5.3K
50¢
$21.8K
45¢
$32.3K
40¢
$85.2K
35¢
$63.5K
30¢
$41.3K
25¢
$17.3K
20¢
$22.1K
15¢
$26.2K
10¢
$62.7K
5¢
$71.7K
0¢
← now
$179.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLInvictus Gaming (NO)$15.2K@ 99.0¢0x9e3e…f882🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$12.3K@ 94.0¢0xd016…6114🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$15.5K@ 97.8¢0xb041…5b72🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$11.1K@ 95.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$39.1K@ 57.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Invictus Gaming$39.1K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
0xb041…5b72Invictus Gaming$17.6K
BUY VWAP 97.9¢·2 fills
0xf030…12e2Weibo Gaming$17.5K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·9 fills
0xc69b…2076Invictus Gaming$17.2K
BUY VWAP 87.4¢·11 fills
0x0bf8…03b2Invictus Gaming$16.3K
BUY VWAP 89.1¢·3 fills
zb8Weibo Gaming$14.8K
BUY VWAP 48.3¢·4 fills
0xd016…6114Invictus Gaming$12.3K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
0xf030…12e2Invictus Gaming$12.3K
BUY VWAP 52.7¢·9 fills
0x99ef…ba25Invictus Gaming$11.8K
BUY VWAP 69.9¢·5 fills
0x9e3e…f882Invictus Gaming$11.1K
BUY VWAP 62.6¢·13 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.