LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 284 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $368.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

0.1¢

YES

99.9¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:411 trades$433.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 360 min agoofficial metadata 283 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $44.5K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$50.8K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLInvictus Gaming (NO)$40.0K@ 100¢·0x48fe…b2b6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$18.1K

tracked

$433.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$44.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 284 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 360 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 283 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolved

Trading

Orders paused

Deadline

2026-08-16 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and Invictus Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 16 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win Game 1 against Invictus Gaming. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win Game 1 against Weibo Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes

RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 5h ago

TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 5h ago

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0xf030…12e23 linked markets · $65.1K gross

0xcae6…4f853 linked markets · $64.1K gross

0x48fe…b2b62 linked markets · $55.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Invictus Gaming@ 61.0¢9h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Invictus Gaming@ 70.0¢9h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE

LARGE FLOWBUY Invictus Gaming@ 61.0¢9h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE

LARGE FLOWBUY Invictus Gaming@ 61.0¢9h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE

Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $25.5K → $5 · 65s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$0

6h−$18.1K

24h−$18.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.1¢

VWAP 24h19.8¢▼ below by 19.7pp

VWAP 7d19.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

$1.1K

50¢

$9.3K

45¢

$10.1K

40¢

$34.0K

35¢

$125.8K

30¢

$21.0K

25¢

$6.3K

20¢

$2.8K

15¢

$21.1K

10¢

$5.7K

5¢

$18.1K

0¢

← now

$178.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now

SELLInvictus Gaming (NO)$13.0K@ 99.9¢0xcf60…a6f5🐋—about 9 hours ago

SELLInvictus Gaming (NO)$40.0K@ 99.9¢0x48fe…b2b6🐋—about 9 hours ago

SELLInvictus Gaming (NO)$10.9K@ 99.9¢0x9d93…2cf1🐋—about 9 hours ago

BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$25.5K@ 98.7¢0xe16e…bd58🐋—about 9 hours ago

BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$13.2K@ 64.0¢

zb80x0224…292a

🐋—about 9 hours ago

BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$18.4K@ 64.0¢

zb80x0224…292a

🐋—about 9 hours ago

BUYInvictus Gaming (NO)$16.0K@ 64.0¢

SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1

🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

zb8Invictus Gaming$31.6K

BUY VWAP 64.0¢·2 fills

0xe16e…bd58Invictus Gaming$25.5K

BUY VWAP 98.7¢·1 fill

0xf030…12e2Invictus Gaming$16.5K

BUY VWAP 68.7¢·10 fills

SineNooneEIInvictus Gaming$16.0K

BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

0xf64e…a1ddInvictus Gaming$13.8K

BUY VWAP 63.6¢·9 fills

0x01e6…e7e0Invictus Gaming$12.9K

BUY VWAP 63.7¢·4 fills

0xcae6…4f85Invictus Gaming$11.2K

BUY VWAP 80.2¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.