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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

● quote just now
Finance→Politics→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $4.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $660.4KEvent: Fed Decision in September?
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 27 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$681 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 33s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $40.3K net·27 wallets·$144.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$11.0K@ 100¢·grazkag

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$20
6h
+$298
tracked
$681

27 verified profitable wallets: NO · $40.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 40 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TheReturnOfDarthMaul2 linked markets · $908.7K gross
timetowander5 linked markets · $694.6K gross
Erasmus.2 linked markets · $642.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $20
6hYES · $298
24hYES · $681

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d0.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$941.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.0K@ 99.9¢
grazkag0x202d…c3b1
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 99.9¢
shtnmachine0xcc2a…9563
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$249.8K@ 99.5¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$99.0K@ 99.0¢
pilimili0xd104…acef
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$14.5K@ 99.1¢0x2795…acd0🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$14.5K@ 99.1¢0x2795…acd0🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$44.6K@ 99.1¢
ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$37.4K@ 98.2¢
ggdajiba0x1fa0…0465
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 98.1¢
Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3e83…5e31No$52.3K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·42 fills
donthackmeNo$15.4K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·15 fills
DavidTrezeguetNo$12.5K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills
grazkagNo$11.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.