Erasmus.
0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
$-801248
Real PnL
-63.6%
ROI
$105.8K
Volume
$1.3M
Invested
20.0%
YES Bias
5
Trades (DB)
9/16
Markets Won
whale40Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24h
Open positions:17 markets·current value $1.2M·8 closed
PnL by Market (25)17 open8 closed
$-293538
● open No · $334.1Kin $362.1Kout $49.6Kunreal +$18.9K
● open No · $367.7Kin $319.1Kunreal +$31.5K
● open No · $368.8Kin $315.4Kunreal +$53.4K
● open No · $34.8Kin $50.4Kunreal $-15630
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
● open No · $3.2Kin $200out $54.3Kunreal $-1548
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
● open No · $7.5Kin $2.0Kout $13.5Kunreal +$5.8K
● open Yes · $8.3Kin $11.8Kunreal $-3509
● open No · $43.9Kin $23.2Kunreal +$9.7K
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
● open No · $1.1Kout $12.8Kunreal +$29
● open No · $38.6Kin $103.8Kout $86.1Kunreal +$8.6K
● open Yes · $7.0Kin $7.6Kunreal $-553
● open No · $1.9Kin $9.5Kout $4.6Kunreal $-2455
● open Yes · $5.6Kin $6.3Kunreal $-686
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
● open No · $2.1Kin $2.0Kunreal +$137
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
● open Yes · $0in $3.0Kout $2.6Kunreal $-626
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
● open No · $668in $3.3Kout $2.5Kunreal +$188
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
● open Yes · $88in $106unreal $-18
● closedout $57.4K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
● closedout $17.1K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
● closedout $11.0K
● closedin $30.5Kout $34.4K
● closedin $2.3Kout $1.9K
● closedin $961out $1.4K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
● closedin $5.1Kout $4.7K
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
● closedin $277out $589
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by March 31? ●open No· $334.1K | $362.1K | $49.6K | +$18.9K | 191 | $-293538 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? ●open No· $367.7K | $319.1K | $0 | +$31.5K | 3 | $-287607 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? ●open No· $368.8K | $315.4K | $0 | +$53.4K | 4 | $-261935 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? ●open No· $34.8K | $50.4K | $0 | $-15630 | 2 | $-66030 |
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? ●open No· $3.2K | $200 | $54.3K | $-1548 | 216 | +$52.6K |
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? ●open No· $7.5K | $2.0K | $13.5K | +$5.8K | 3 | +$17.3K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? ●open Yes· $8.3K | $11.8K | $0 | $-3509 | 7 | $-15284 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? ●open No· $43.9K | $23.2K | $0 | +$9.7K | 3 | $-13556 |
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? ●open No· $1.1K | $0 | $12.8K | +$29 | 5 | +$12.8K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? ●open No· $38.6K | $103.8K | $86.1K | +$8.6K | 4 | $-8996 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? ●open Yes· $7.0K | $7.6K | $0 | $-553 | 3 | $-8149 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? ●open No· $1.9K | $9.5K | $4.6K | $-2455 | 4 | $-7438 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? ●open Yes· $5.6K | $6.3K | $0 | $-686 | 3 | $-6997 |
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? ●open No· $2.1K | $2.0K | $0 | +$137 | 1 | $-1867 |
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? ●open Yes· $0 | $3.0K | $2.6K | $-626 | 3 | $-1018 |
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? ●open No· $668 | $3.3K | $2.5K | +$188 | 2 | $-649 |
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? ●open Yes· $88 | $106 | $0 | $-18 | 1 | $-123 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $0 | $57.4K | — | 1 | +$57.4K |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ● closed | $0 | $17.1K | — | 1 | +$17.1K |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? ● closed | $0 | $11.0K | — | 6 | +$11.0K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? ● closed | $30.5K | $34.4K | — | 8 | +$3.9K |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? ● closed | $2.3K | $1.9K | — | 2 | $-446 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? ● closed | $961 | $1.4K | — | 2 | +$425 |
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? ● closed | $5.1K | $4.7K | — | 4 | $-391 |
Kristi Noem out by March 31? ● closed | $277 | $589 | — | 1 | +$311 |
Recent Trades (5)
Trading Activity · 90d
2 active days
Category Accuracy
Geopolitics
$1.2M40%2/5
Politics
$2.3K0%0/1
Entry Timing Before Resolution
1d–7d
3 betsunresolved0/0
>7d
2 betsunresolved0/0
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