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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Finance→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $1.6MOfficial 24h Vol: $6.0MEvent: Fed Decision in October?
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $533.5K net·97 wallets(15🐋)·$1.5M gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$255.3K@ 100¢·AgricultureSecretary

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-29 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
timetowander4 linked markets · $659.4K gross
bobe23 linked markets · $481.8K gross
Sisyphus.2 linked markets · $348.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 96.2¢3d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 95.3¢3d ago
15m STALLED +0.5pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY YES@ 95.4¢3d ago
15m STALLED -0.3pp1h STALLED -0.3pp6h STALLED -0.6pp24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 96.1¢3d ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -0.2pp6h STALLED -0.7pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $765.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h97.07¢▲ above by 2.9pp
VWAP 7d94.76¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.1M
90¢
$3.9M
85¢
$1.6M
80¢
$1.5M
75¢
$913.5K
70¢
$600.5K
65¢
$323.5K
60¢
$212.5K
55¢
$117.2K
50¢
$87.2K
45¢
$93.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$56.2K@ 99.9¢0xcb2c…4b43🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$11.3K@ 99.9¢
nickcoast0x64a5…5e9e
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$51.2K@ 99.9¢
samskisy0x2da6…12fe
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$16.6K@ 99.9¢
hu16pmt0x6766…4c2c
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$26.1K@ 99.9¢
MJB0x394e…b5bf
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$65.7K@ 99.9¢
hoe20mprt0x4794…2564
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$27.0K@ 99.9¢
Aeglos0xb665…bf8f
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$48.7K@ 99.9¢0xb9a9…6e00🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$20.0K@ 99.9¢
yingxer0xded8…ca0f
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$20.0K@ 99.9¢
yingxer0xded8…ca0f
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 99.9¢
0xB16B00B50x8a7b…782f
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$25.0K@ 99.9¢
x260x5b91…2709
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$23.1K@ 99.84¢
0xAlikz0x2037…473d
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$255.3K@ 99.9¢
AgricultureSecretary0x6ffb…a834
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$13.1K@ 97.39¢
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$15.5K@ 97.1¢
debased0x24c8…23e1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$25.6K@ 97.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$59.2K@ 96.85¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$42.2K@ 96.4¢
thegreengem0xdcd6…84cd
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$19.3K@ 96.3¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$14.5K@ 96.4¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$19.3K@ 96.4¢
BreadGet0x4e56…dee1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 95.9¢
e46m30x4f1d…8de2
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 95.9¢
Paul9739730xa108…abd3
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$17.4K@ 95.3¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 95.57¢
mrwhite7000xbc80…3d59
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$28.6K@ 95.49¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$32.5K@ 95.39¢
zb80x0224…292a
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$16.6K@ 95.3¢
Solmaxi8888.sol0x7502…beaf
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$18.8K@ 95.46¢
Constantinus0x0d31…3dc7
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$11.1K@ 95.24¢0xe907…cff6🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 94.7¢
roroelguapo0x8e89…c03b
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.1K@ 94.9¢
Spas120x9c26…74bc
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$55.1K@ 94.8¢
allen1110x269c…9017
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$13.1K@ 94.9¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$15.7K@ 94.8¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$16.9K@ 94.99¢
baba14430x77b6…7fec
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$28.7K@ 94.75¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.7K@ 95.0¢
GoriIIa0xfffa…864b
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$12.3K@ 95.19¢
maclogcy0x5f41…0c00
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.7K@ 95.1¢
maclogcy0x5f41…0c00
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 95.0¢
maclogcy0x5f41…0c00
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 95.19¢
sjbwin0x6bf1…7ea7
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 95.2¢
Randomfool0xf036…b8f1
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$13.7K@ 4.8¢
MartytheFly0x4506…c54f
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.3K@ 95.77¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$37.3K@ 4.7¢
MartytheFly0x4506…c54f
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 96.2¢
truthteller0x30e4…5102
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 96.41¢0xcb2c…4b43🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 96.1¢
sjbwin0x6bf1…7ea7
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bobe2Yes$301.3K
BUY VWAP 94.82¢·4 fills
AgricultureSecretaryYes$255.3K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
welcometowinnercircleYes$154.1K
BUY VWAP 94.74¢·7 fills
jsmythysonNo$150.4K
BUY VWAP 6.11¢·91 fills
nonkenny90Yes$116.2K
BUY VWAP 94.42¢·48 fills
GmoasYes$115.7K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·3 fills
wokerjoesleeperYes$113.8K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill
alangreenspanYes$91.3K
BUY VWAP 94.98¢·3 fills
arjenwYes$89.6K
BUY VWAP 92.50¢·11 fills
robauYes$80.5K
BUY VWAP 94.69¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.