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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

● quote just now
Finance→Closes: 2 monthsLiquidity: $108.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $51.4KEvent: Fed Decision in December?
68.5¢
YES
31.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1154 min agoofficial metadata 1366 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $23.8K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$26.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$14.3K@ 69¢·CDAP1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $23.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 1154 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1366 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-09 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 71.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $0

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h70.1¢▼ below by 1.6pp
VWAP 7d69.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$5.1K
65¢
← now
$34.9K
60¢
$9.7K
55¢
$15.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$5.5K
40¢
$3.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$14.3K@ 69.4¢
CDAP10xe033…40a5
🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CDAP1Yes$25.0K
BUY VWAP 69.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.