ArmageddonRewardsBilly
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
$-99093
Real PnL
-36.3%
ROI
$751.9K
Volume
$272.7K
Invested
27.1%
YES Bias
48
Trades (DB)
49/51
Markets Won
whale38Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24h
Open positions:22 markets·current value $555.4K·87 closed
PnL by Market (109)22 open87 closed
● open Michigan Wolverines · $80.8Kin $163.2Kout $91.8Kunreal +$1.4K
● open No · $90.5Kin $21.6Kunreal +$1.1K
● open No · $22.1Kin $8.9Kunreal $-1439
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
● open Yes · $1.9Kout $0unreal $-4793
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
● open No · $6.2Kin $4.4Kunreal +$3
● open No · $4.4Kin $3.8Kunreal +$125
● open No · $42.7Kin $72out $3.4Kunreal +$359
● open No · $22.5Kin $3.7Kunreal +$261
● open No · $60.2Kin $197unreal +$2.5K
● open No · $6.5Kin $1.7Kunreal $-131
● open Yes · $4.9Kin $2.7Kunreal +$920
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
● open No · $34.4Kin $13unreal +$1.5K
● open Yes · $24.2Kin $98out $3.0Kunreal $-3913
Iran leadership change by April 30?
● open No · $3.4Kout $590unreal +$87
● open Yes · $924out $3unreal +$666
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?
● open No · $52.9Kin $455unreal +$1.1K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
● open No · $4.9Kout $316unreal +$47
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
● open Yes · $4.3Kin $117unreal +$331
● open No · $51.9Kin $857unreal +$687
● open No · $3.6Kout $1.0Kunreal $-1150
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
● open No · $30.6Kin $20unreal $-20
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
● open No · $1.5Kout $103unreal $-70
● closedin $9.3Kout $19.0K
● closedin $40.3Kout $46.3K
● closedin $2.9K
● closedout $2.6K
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
● closedin $1.8K
Claude 4.7 released by March 31?
● closedout $990
● closedin $889
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
● closedout $595
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
● closedin $569
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
● closedout $552
● closedin $515
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
● closedin $480out $18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
● closedout $422
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
● closedout $412
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
● closedin $382
● closedout $200
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30?
● closedout $199
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
● closedin $190
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
● closedin $188
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
● closedin $168
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30?
● closedin $165
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
● closedin $161
● closedin $158
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
● closedin $151
● closedout $140
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?
● closedout $132
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
● closedin $116
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?
● closedout $102
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29?
● closedout $100
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?
● closedin $98
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?
● closedin $94
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
● closedout $75
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
● closedin $66
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?
● closedout $60
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 29?
● closedout $51
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026?
● closedin $46
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
● closedin $43
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
● closedout $40
Iran leadership change by May 31?
● closedin $37
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
● closedin $35
Will Trump say "Eat our Lunch" this week? (March 29)
● closedin $33
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29?
● closedin $32
NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins
● closedin $32
● closedin $30
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?
● closedin $29
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
● closedout $27
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
● closedout $25
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 3, 2026?
● closedin $25
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
● closedout $23
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?
● closedin $19
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?
● closedout $19
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?
● closedout $18
● closedin $1.2Kout $1.2K
● closedin $314out $328
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
● closedout $14
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
● closedin $13
Will Factset Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?
● closedin $13
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
● closedin $11
● closedin $11
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
● closedout $11
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
● closedin $10
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?
● closedin $9
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?
● closedout $9
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
● closedout $8
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
● closedin $7
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026?
● closedin $6
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
● closedin $6
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?
● closedin $6
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?
● closedout $5
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
● closedout $5
Spain snap election called in 2026?
● closedout $4
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
● closedin $3
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
● closedout $3
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
● closedout $2
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
● closedin $2
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
● closedin $2
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
● closedout $1
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
● closedout $1
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat?
● closedin $1
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31?
● closedout $1
Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by March 31?
● closedout $1
Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2027?
● closedin $1
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
● closedout $1
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
● closedout $0
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31?
● closedout $0
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
● closedin $0
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?
● closedin $0
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines ●open Michigan Wolverines· $80.8K | $163.2K | $91.8K | +$1.4K | 139 | $-70015 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? ●open No· $90.5K | $21.6K | $0 | +$1.1K | 2 | $-20526 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? ●open No· $22.1K | $8.9K | $0 | $-1439 | 2 | $-10362 |
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? ●open Yes· $1.9K | $0 | $0 | $-4793 | 1 | $-4792 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? ●open No· $6.2K | $4.4K | $0 | +$3 | 1 | $-4357 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? ●open No· $4.4K | $3.8K | $0 | +$125 | 4 | $-3700 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? ●open No· $42.7K | $72 | $3.4K | +$359 | 3 | +$3.7K |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? ●open No· $22.5K | $3.7K | $0 | +$261 | 7 | $-3479 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? ●open No· $60.2K | $197 | $0 | +$2.5K | 2 | +$2.3K |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? ●open No· $6.5K | $1.7K | $0 | $-131 | 1 | $-1851 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? ●open Yes· $4.9K | $2.7K | $0 | +$920 | 2 | $-1740 |
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? ●open No· $34.4K | $13 | $0 | +$1.5K | 1 | +$1.5K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? ●open Yes· $24.2K | $98 | $3.0K | $-3913 | 29 | $-1037 |
Iran leadership change by April 30? ●open No· $3.4K | $0 | $590 | +$87 | 1 | +$676 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? ●open Yes· $924 | $0 | $3 | +$666 | 1 | +$669 |
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? ●open No· $52.9K | $455 | $0 | +$1.1K | 1 | +$632 |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? ●open No· $4.9K | $0 | $316 | +$47 | 3 | +$363 |
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? ●open Yes· $4.3K | $117 | $0 | +$331 | 2 | +$215 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? ●open No· $51.9K | $857 | $0 | +$687 | 8 | $-169 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? ●open No· $3.6K | $0 | $1.0K | $-1150 | 25 | $-116 |
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? ●open No· $30.6K | $20 | $0 | $-20 | 1 | $-40 |
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? ●open No· $1.5K | $0 | $103 | $-70 | 4 | +$33 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? ● closed | $9.3K | $19.0K | — | 8 | +$9.7K |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? ● closed | $40.3K | $46.3K | — | 20 | +$6.0K |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? ● closed | $2.9K | $0 | — | 2 | $-2940 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? ● closed | $0 | $2.6K | — | 3 | +$2.6K |
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? ● closed | $1.8K | $0 | — | 3 | $-1809 |
Claude 4.7 released by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $990 | — | 1 | +$990 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? ● closed | $889 | $0 | — | 4 | $-889 |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? ● closed | $0 | $595 | — | 29 | +$595 |
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? ● closed | $569 | $0 | — | 11 | $-569 |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? ● closed | $0 | $552 | — | 3 | +$552 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? ● closed | $515 | $0 | — | 4 | $-515 |
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? ● closed | $480 | $18 | — | 3 | $-462 |
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? ● closed | $0 | $422 | — | 2 | +$422 |
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? ● closed | $0 | $412 | — | 32 | +$412 |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ● closed | $382 | $0 | — | 2 | $-382 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? ● closed | $0 | $200 | — | 0 | +$200 |
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by April 30? ● closed | $0 | $199 | — | 1 | +$199 |
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? ● closed | $190 | $0 | — | 1 | $-190 |
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? ● closed | $188 | $0 | — | 1 | $-188 |
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? ● closed | $168 | $0 | — | 4 | $-168 |
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? ● closed | $165 | $0 | — | 1 | $-165 |
Over $35M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? ● closed | $161 | $0 | — | 1 | $-161 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? ● closed | $158 | $0 | — | 1 | $-158 |
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? ● closed | $151 | $0 | — | 2 | $-151 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? ● closed | $0 | $140 | — | 2 | +$140 |
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $132 | — | 1 | +$132 |
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? ● closed | $116 | $0 | — | 4 | $-116 |
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31? ● closed | $0 | $102 | — | 2 | +$102 |
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29? ● closed | $0 | $100 | — | 0 | +$100 |
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31? ● closed | $98 | $0 | — | 1 | $-98 |
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? ● closed | $94 | $0 | — | 1 | $-94 |
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $75 | — | 1 | +$75 |
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? ● closed | $66 | $0 | — | 1 | $-66 |
Over $80M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? ● closed | $0 | $60 | — | 23 | +$60 |
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 29? ● closed | $0 | $51 | — | 6 | +$51 |
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026? ● closed | $46 | $0 | — | 1 | $-46 |
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? ● closed | $43 | $0 | — | 1 | $-43 |
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? ● closed | $0 | $40 | — | 1 | +$40 |
Iran leadership change by May 31? ● closed | $37 | $0 | — | 1 | $-37 |
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? ● closed | $35 | $0 | — | 1 | $-35 |
Will Trump say "Eat our Lunch" this week? (March 29) ● closed | $33 | $0 | — | 1 | $-33 |
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29? ● closed | $32 | $0 | — | 7 | $-32 |
NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins ● closed | $32 | $0 | — | 1 | $-32 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? ● closed | $30 | $0 | — | 4 | $-30 |
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? ● closed | $29 | $0 | — | 1 | $-29 |
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? ● closed | $0 | $27 | — | 2 | +$27 |
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? ● closed | $0 | $25 | — | 1 | +$25 |
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 3, 2026? ● closed | $25 | $0 | — | 2 | $-25 |
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $23 | — | 3 | +$23 |
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? ● closed | $19 | $0 | — | 1 | $-19 |
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $19 | — | 2 | +$19 |
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30? ● closed | $0 | $18 | — | 2 | +$18 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? ● closed | $1.2K | $1.2K | — | 3 | +$17 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? ● closed | $314 | $328 | — | 4 | +$14 |
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? ● closed | $0 | $14 | — | 1 | +$14 |
Kurds declare independence from Iran? ● closed | $13 | $0 | — | 2 | $-13 |
Will Factset Research Systems (FDS) beat quarterly earnings? ● closed | $13 | $0 | — | 1 | $-13 |
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? ● closed | $11 | $0 | — | 1 | $-11 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? ● closed | $11 | $0 | — | 2 | $-11 |
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $11 | — | 1 | +$11 |
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? ● closed | $10 | $0 | — | 1 | $-10 |
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? ● closed | $9 | $0 | — | 1 | $-9 |
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026? ● closed | $0 | $9 | — | 1 | +$9 |
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $8 | — | 1 | +$8 |
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? ● closed | $7 | $0 | — | 1 | $-7 |
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? ● closed | $6 | $0 | — | 1 | $-6 |
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? ● closed | $6 | $0 | — | 1 | $-6 |
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? ● closed | $6 | $0 | — | 1 | $-6 |
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m? ● closed | $0 | $5 | — | 2 | +$5 |
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $5 | — | 1 | +$5 |
Spain snap election called in 2026? ● closed | $0 | $4 | — | 1 | +$4 |
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? ● closed | $3 | $0 | — | 1 | $-3 |
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? ● closed | $0 | $3 | — | 1 | +$3 |
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $2 | — | 1 | +$2 |
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? ● closed | $2 | $0 | — | 2 | $-2 |
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? ● closed | $2 | $0 | — | 1 | $-2 |
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat? ● closed | $1 | $0 | — | 1 | $-1 |
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2027? ● closed | $1 | $0 | — | 1 | $-1 |
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 1 | +$0 |
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 1 | +$0 |
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 1 | $-0 |
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 1 | $-0 |
Recent Trades (20)
YES$3@ 0.2¢Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?about 22 hours ago
Trading Activity · 90d
11 active days
Category Accuracy
Entry Timing Before Resolution
<6h
3 betsunresolved0/0
6h–1d
2 betsunresolved0/0
1d–7d
4 betsunresolved0/0
>7d
20 betsunresolved0/0
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