Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist β not a trade recommendation
NO pressure: β$2.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.
13 verified profitable wallets: +$90.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 76% Β· priority 51
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- β’Executable quote is 274 minutes old.
- β’Observed tape is 281 minutes old.
- β’Official market metadata is 275 minutes old.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
Read full resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 β NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile Β· tracked 30d
VPOC = 20Β’ Β· highlighted bar = current price Β· blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets Β· same event first, then category
Observed whale buys Β· 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.