PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $705.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $817.8KEvent: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15.5¢
YES
84.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly92Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 33 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:327 trades$228.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $194.9K net·33 wallets(5🐋)·$569.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$84.0K@ 84¢·DonaldinhoTrumpito

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $33.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$33.4K
6h
−$43.5K
tracked
$228.1K

33 verified profitable wallets: YES · $194.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 30d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY YES@ 17.0¢20h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 17.0¢21h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 18.0¢21h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 18.0¢21h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $33.4K
6hNO · $43.5K
24hYES · $13.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.5¢
VWAP 24h15.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d15.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$2.9M
10¢
$824.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$21.0K@ 16.0¢
99problems1230x0042…321e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLNO$10.8K@ 83.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 84.0¢
Zbinik0xa9f3…4bce
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYYES$23.3K@ 17.0¢
99problems1230x0042…321e
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$14.3K@ 16.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$42.3K@ 15.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYNO$11.1K@ 86.0¢
Valen90x162f…798d
🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYNO$12.9K@ 86.0¢
Diablosissmurf0x8735…db43
🐋—1 day ago
SELLNO$69.4K@ 85.0¢
pugdev0xb8a7…7674
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$50.0K@ 86.0¢0xb70c…34ca🐋—2 days ago
SELLNO$60.7K@ 85.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$17.7K@ 86.0¢
Debosnys0x7e30…1e50
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$48.7K@ 86.0¢
pugdev0xb8a7…7674
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$21.5K@ 86.0¢
pugdev0xb8a7…7674
🐋—3 days ago
BUYNO$17.2K@ 86.0¢
Valen90x162f…798d
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$17.0K@ 85.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$21.1K@ 15.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$30.1K@ 86.0¢
AllByMyseIf0x5188…c804
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$17.2K@ 86.0¢
pBs13370x7516…8beb
🐋—4 days ago
SELLYES$20.3K@ 15.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$83.2K@ 85.0¢0xad96…d498🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 85.0¢
dahu10xde8f…8fd8
🐋—5 days ago
SELLNO$16.8K@ 84.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—5 days ago
SELLNO$11.8K@ 84.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$16.8K@ 84.0¢
Valen90x162f…798d
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$20.7K@ 84.0¢
cocos2280x8e5c…a68a
🐋—5 days ago
SELLNO$14.1K@ 83.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—5 days ago
SELLNO$16.6K@ 83.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—6 days ago
SELLNO$10.9K@ 83.0¢
dahu10xde8f…8fd8
🐋—6 days ago
SELLNO$24.9K@ 83.0¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—7 days ago
BUYYES$24.3K@ 16.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$25.2K@ 84.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$30.9K@ 85.0¢
AllByMyseIf0x5188…c804
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$20.9K@ 84.0¢
Huludubu0xe738…df65
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$11.6K@ 84.0¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$26.0K@ 84.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$29.4K@ 84.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$29.4K@ 84.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$25.2K@ 84.0¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—8 days ago
SELLNO$47.9K@ 82.6¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$16.6K@ 83.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$20.3K@ 83.0¢
Useerna0x82d9…eaf8
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$23.2K@ 83.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$18.3K@ 83.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$33.2K@ 83.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 84.0¢
HukaBars0x4a3b…2eb3
🐋—10 days ago
SELLNO$11.6K@ 83.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$22.2K@ 83.0¢
Aeglos0xb665…bf8f
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$41.5K@ 83.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$16.6K@ 83.0¢
Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7
🐋—11 days ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
0.4¢$890.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
86.5¢$492.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
19.5¢$296.1Kpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
3.6¢$277.8Kpriority42Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Iran leadership change by September 30?
0.4¢$241.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
1.0¢$231.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
0.3¢$192.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xad96…d498No$89.1K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·2 fills
pugdevNo$70.2K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·2 fills
AllByMyseIfNo$61.0K
BUY VWAP 85.5¢·2 fills
tetroseYes$59.8K
BUY VWAP 15.6¢·4 fills
0xb70c…34caNo$50.0K
BUY VWAP 86.0¢·1 fill
Valen9No$45.1K
BUY VWAP 85.2¢·3 fills
dromedaryyYes$42.3K
BUY VWAP 15.0¢·1 fill
99problems123Yes$23.7K
BUY VWAP 17.0¢·2 fills
EatprayloveNo$20.9K
BUY VWAP 83.8¢·3 fills
cocos228No$20.7K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.