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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

● quote just now
Finance→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $300.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $216.8KEvent: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
93.0¢
YES
7.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:148 trades$8.2K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 108 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $12.3K net·16 wallets·$12.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$26.6K@ 88¢·plumbis

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$5.5K
tracked
$8.2K

16 verified profitable wallets: NO · $12.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 108 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xaba6…0cd92 linked markets · $18.5K gross
donthackme5 linked markets · $4.1K gross
Hyperlong2 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 89.0¢14d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 89.0¢15d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 88.0¢20d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED +0.2pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 85.8¢37d ago
15m STALLED -0.6pp1h STALLED -0.6pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $5.5K
24hNO · $6.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.0¢
VWAP 24h93.3¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d93.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$140.1K
85¢
$300.6K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$14.1K@ 94.2¢
joy2theworld0xc757…3619
🐋—4 days ago
SELLNO$10.5K@ 9.1¢
gjfiri4i4i40x33e6…89dc
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 89.0¢0xe617…f251🐋—14 days ago
BUYYES$26.6K@ 87.8¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋—20 days ago
SELLYES$12.5K@ 85.9¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$16.9K@ 85.8¢
Cbs7100x700a…a239
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$29.3K@ 87.6¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$53.3K@ 88.9¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 17.8¢0xf8db…f92c🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

joy2theworldYes$14.1K
BUY VWAP 94.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.