Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

● quote just now
FinancePoliticsCloses: 17 daysLiquidity: $477.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $960.6KEvent: Fed Decision in September?
50.5¢
YES
49.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly4direction1wallets97execution93priority51data 78%💡 30 smart
24h sample:738 trades$511.1K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $127.6K net·30 wallets(8🐋)·$730.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$92.1K@ 68¢·0xdac7…d26a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.9K
6h
−$103.3K
tracked
$511.1K

30 verified profitable wallets: NO · $127.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 51

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
timetowander5 linked markets · $525.5K gross
TheReturnOfDarthMaul3 linked markets · $353.4K gross
0xf559…f4622 linked markets · $239.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 57.0¢19h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 57.0¢19h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 58.0¢21h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY YES@ 49.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h CONFIRMED +5.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

1hYES · $2.9K
6hNO · $103.3K
24hNO · $36.2K

YES price VWAP

Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h54.4¢▼ below by 3.9pp
VWAP 7d59.5¢
Largest observed holders

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$142.0K
70¢
$1.2M
65¢
$2.0M
60¢
$963.9K
55¢
$651.3K
50¢
← now
$648.5K
45¢
$345.8K
40¢
$36.5K
35¢
$16.8K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$20.4K@ 51.0¢0xe4cb…4f32🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLYES$15.3K@ 49.6¢0xe4cb…4f32🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLYES$30.9K@ 49.0¢0xe4cb…4f32🐋about 1 hour ago
SELLYES$13.9K@ 52.0¢
plumbis0x77fb…266c
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYNO$12.6K@ 47.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 54.0¢
endlesssss0xb4fc…a926
🐋about 9 hours ago
SELLYES$10.5K@ 54.0¢
larkspur0xcbc5…e175
🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYNO$15.7K@ 45.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$15.8K@ 55.0¢
ColdSoap20x859b…31b8
🐋about 17 hours ago
SELLYES$22.5K@ 55.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋about 19 hours ago
SELLYES$24.8K@ 56.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋about 19 hours ago
BUYYES$28.0K@ 56.0¢
Googly0x8ba7…84e9
🐋about 19 hours ago
SELLYES$18.5K@ 55.0¢
hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh0x0111…60f7
🐋about 20 hours ago
SELLYES$15.4K@ 57.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$10.4K@ 58.0¢
zouzouzou1230x3985…d103
🐋about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$23.2K@ 58.0¢
Googly0x8ba7…84e9
🐋about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$27.2K@ 56.5¢
Googly0x8ba7…84e9
🐋about 21 hours ago
BUYYES$13.4K@ 50.0¢
Kainvest0xdb38…ce37
🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$13.0K@ 49.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$18.4K@ 49.0¢
TwoEyes0xb1a2…372a
🐋1 day ago
BUYNO$20.4K@ 50.0¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$12.3K@ 48.0¢
larkspur0xcbc5…e175
🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$14.5K@ 46.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$19.3K@ 48.7¢
PF100X0xef2d…2a45
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$17.6K@ 52.0¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$19.0K@ 51.5¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$19.5K@ 51.1¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$14.6K@ 53.0¢
T310x4e66…668f
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 54.0¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$22.9K@ 54.3¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$13.7K@ 54.0¢
hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh0x0111…60f7
🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$10.6K@ 55.0¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$10.4K@ 54.0¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 54.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 53.0¢0xf559…f462🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$23.0K@ 55.2¢
wangtoutou0x7339…4132
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$15.4K@ 57.0¢
TwoEyes0xb1a2…372a
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 60.0¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$19.2K@ 65.0¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$20.0K@ 67.2¢
Ahpo0xcdb1…276c
🐋1 day ago
BUYYES$20.5K@ 69.0¢
Ahpo0xcdb1…276c
🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$24.0K@ 67.0¢
Kainvest0xdb38…ce37
🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$10.3K@ 68.0¢
BrevanHoward0x0a26…1851
🐋2 days ago
BUYYES$55.1K@ 69.0¢
Melody6260xecaa…77a9
🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$14.4K@ 68.0¢
truthteller0x30e4…5102
🐋2 days ago
SELLYES$40.9K@ 66.9¢0xf559…f462🐋3 days ago
SELLYES$14.4K@ 67.0¢0xf559…f462🐋3 days ago
BUYYES$20.8K@ 67.0¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋3 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 66.0¢
BrevanHoward0x0a26…1851
🐋3 days ago
BUYYES$12.7K@ 65.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

timetowanderNo$174.9K
BUY VWAP 39.6¢·83 fills
LarpitalYes$105.4K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·8 fills
0xf559…f462Yes$100.9K
BUY VWAP 65.3¢·3 fills
GooglyYes$83.1K
BUY VWAP 56.7¢·4 fills
gaven-willwinYes$82.2K
BUY VWAP 66.7¢·4 fills
foodenjoyerYes$64.0K
BUY VWAP 66.7¢·2 fills
Melody626Yes$55.1K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
coali10No$48.3K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·2 fills
robauYes$46.5K
BUY VWAP 63.7¢·8 fills
GDJHAVNo$39.4K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.