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Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

● quote just now
Finance→Tech→Science→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $31.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $172.0KEvent: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
54.2¢
YES
45.8¢
NO
3.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$689 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 277 min agoofficial metadata 34 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$57.5K@ 57¢·0xffbb…36e9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$533
tracked
$689

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $8.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.4¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 277 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 34 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 3.4¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-02 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x43cb…84df2 linked markets · $115 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 47.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.7pp6h STALLED +0.1pp24h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 50.4¢2d ago
Outcome checks pending
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 48.9¢4d ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $533
24hNO · $437

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.2¢
VWAP 24h53.0¢▲ above by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d48.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$37
55¢
$64.1K
50¢
← now
$786
45¢
$97.3K
40¢
$167
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$48.0K@ 48.0¢
occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b
🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$57.5K@ 57.5¢0xffbb…36e9🐋—28 days ago
SELLYES$11.3K@ 57.5¢
sumer0x7d7d…e3e5
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$17.6K@ 42.4¢
BMM-10xdf1c…2ebb
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLYES$21.6K@ 57.5¢0x9032…8717🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 73.4¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

occasionalAwarenessYes$48.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.