Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

● quote 1183 min ago

Finance→Tech→CorporateCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $75.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $8.4KEvent: Largest Company end of December 2026?

Indicative prices · 1183 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

63.35¢

YES

36.65¢

0.7¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:3 trades$17 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 133 min agoofficial metadata 1980 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $738 net·7 wallets·$1.2K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$35.4K@ 34¢·Hauchn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$2

tracked

$17

7 verified profitable wallets: YES · $738 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
•Executable quote is 1183 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 133 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 1980 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 04:59 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes

DEADLINE CHANGED · 45d ago

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

Hauchn2 linked markets · $12.4K gross

Bigggggggg3 linked markets · $5.2K gross

akroll4 linked markets · $1.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 34.9¢24d ago

15m STALLED -1.1pp1h INVALIDATED -3.5pp6h INVALIDATED -5.7pp24h INVALIDATED -8.8pp

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 79.6¢97d ago

15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -1.1pp6h STALLED -1.3pp24h STALLED +0.8pp

THESIS FLIPBUY NO@ 79.6¢97d ago

15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -1.1pp6h STALLED -1.3pp24h STALLED +0.8pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $2

24hYES · $17

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current63.35¢

VWAP 24h64.08¢▼ below by 0.7pp

VWAP 7d57.29¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

$5.9K

65¢

$2.6K