Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

● quote just now

Finance→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $120.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $122.5KEvent: Fed rate hike by...?

91.5¢

YES

8.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:10 trades$100.6K tracked30% 🐋source coverage 82%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 185 min agoofficial metadata just now

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$45.0K@ 90¢·deltasniper

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$48

tracked

$100.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $6.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 185 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-12-09 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

deltasniper2 linked markets · $113.7K gross

JonTay2 linked markets · $53.2K gross

classified2 linked markets · $40.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 90.0¢16h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 90.0¢16h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 90.0¢18h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 87.0¢2d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h STALLED +2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hNO · $48

24hYES · $70.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current91.5¢

VWAP 24h90.3¢▲ above by 1.2pp

VWAP 7d85.4¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

← now

$100.7K

85¢

$28.2K

80¢

$38.9K

75¢