Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

● quote 15s ago

Finance→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $92.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $63.1KEvent: Fed rate hike by...?

41.5¢

YES

58.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly60Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:13 trades$9.5K trackedsource coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 40 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $1.1K net·2 wallets·$1.1K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$6.2K@ 56¢·JonTay

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

NO pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

−$1.4K

tracked

$9.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 40 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-12-09 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $1.4K

6hNO · $1.4K

24hNO · $6.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current41.5¢

VWAP 24h44.1¢▼ below by 2.6pp

VWAP 7d50.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

$27.7K

50¢

$9.0K

45¢

$23.7K

40¢

← now

$12.8K

35¢

$1.3K

30¢

$12.6K

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.