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Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-3.5) vs Valentin Vacherot (+3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $9.6KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

61.0¢
Rafael Jodar
39.0¢
Valentin Vacherot
6.0¢
Spread
anomaly28Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:5 trades$3.6K trackedsource coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar$3.5K@ 51¢·0xf12f…b30f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$30
6h
+$3.6K
tracked
$3.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Rafael Jodar · $17 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 6.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Rafael Jodar" if Rafael Jodar wins 3.5 or more total games than Valentin Vacherot in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Rafael Jodar could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Rafael Jodar" if Rafael Jodar wins 3.5 or more total games than Valentin Vacherot in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Rafael Jodar could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Valentin Vacherot". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf12f…b30f2 linked markets · $10.5K gross
redvinny2 linked markets · $3.4K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $124 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Valentin Vacherot DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $9 → $96 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Rafael Jodar; negative values favor Valentin Vacherot. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRafael Jodar · $30
6hRafael Jodar · $3.6K
24hRafael Jodar · $3.6K

Rafael Jodar price VWAP

Volume-weighted Rafael Jodar price. Valentin Vacherot fills are converted to the complementary Rafael Jodar probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.0¢
VWAP 24h51.53¢▲ above by 9.5pp
VWAP 7d51.53¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Rafael Jodar price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$17
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$13
50¢
$3.6K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.