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Guangzhou Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $113.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $409.1KEvent: Guangzhou Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

55.5¢
Maria Timofeeva
44.5¢
Xinran Sun
7.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:172 trades$118.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 57s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Maria Timofeeva · $940 net·8 wallets·$11.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYXinran Sun$16.8K@ 42¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Xinran Sun pressure: $2.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.1K
6h
−$35.1K
tracked
$118.3K

8 verified profitable wallets: Maria Timofeeva · $940 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
7.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 83% · priority 44

Since latest large flow: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 7.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Xinran Sun or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Timofeeva and Xinran Sun in the Guangzhou Open, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Timofeeva' if Maria Timofeeva advances against Xinran Sun. This market will resolve to 'Xinran Sun' if Xinran Sun advances against Maria Timofeeva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
traba2 linked markets · $12.9K gross
wingwingwin2 linked markets · $12.5K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $6.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Xinran Sun@ 41.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Xinran Sun DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $276 → $3 · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Maria Timofeeva; negative values favor Xinran Sun. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hXinran Sun · $2.1K
6hXinran Sun · $35.1K
24hXinran Sun · $36.9K

Maria Timofeeva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Maria Timofeeva price. Xinran Sun fills are converted to the complementary Maria Timofeeva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current55.5¢
VWAP 24h46.15¢▲ above by 9.4pp
VWAP 7d46.15¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Maria Timofeeva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$8.8K
55¢
← now
$42.1K
50¢
$9.1K
45¢
$9.2K
40¢
$12.5K
35¢
$8.0K
30¢
$12.1K
25¢
$9.6K
20¢
$224
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
$4.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYXinran Sun$16.8K@ 42.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Timofeeva vs. Sun: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$16.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Maria Timofeeva (-1.5) vs Xinran Sun (+1.5)
0.45¢$16.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Maria Timofeeva (-3.5) vs Xinran Sun (+3.5)
50.0¢$2.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Maria Timofeeva vs. Xinran Sun: Total Sets O/U 2.5
48.5¢$77priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Timofeeva vs. Sun: Match O/U 23.5
49.5¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Timofeeva vs. Sun: Match O/U 22.5
49.5¢$4priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Timofeeva vs. Sun: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KkunnXinran Sun$21.4K
BUY VWAP 41.78¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.