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Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $298.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $550.6KEvent: Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

29.5¢
Valentin Vacherot
70.5¢
Rafael Jodar
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$217.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 41s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Valentin Vacherot · $11.6K net·8 wallets·$14.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRafael Jodar$38.3K@ 75¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Rafael Jodar SETUP
What the tape says

Rafael Jodar pressure: $17.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.3K
6h
−$85.9K
tracked
$217.9K

8 verified profitable wallets: Valentin Vacherot · $11.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 64

Since latest accumulation: -6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Rafael Jodar or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Vacherot and Rafael Jodar in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Vacherot' if Valentin Vacherot advances against Rafael Jodar. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Valentin Vacherot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf12f…b30f2 linked markets · $6.0K gross
redvinny2 linked markets · $3.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Rafael Jodar@ 77.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 83.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp1h INVALIDATED -14.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Rafael Jodar@ 73.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Rafael Jodar UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $707 → $36.7K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valentin Vacherot; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRafael Jodar · $17.3K
6hRafael Jodar · $85.9K
24hRafael Jodar · $106.2K

Valentin Vacherot price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valentin Vacherot price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Valentin Vacherot probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h32.94¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d32.94¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valentin Vacherot price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$23.3K
50¢
$7.1K
45¢
$8.4K
40¢
$13.0K
35¢
$17.8K
30¢
$22.6K
25¢
← now
$91.3K
20¢
$30.3K
15¢
$4.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRafael Jodar$38.3K@ 75.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYRafael Jodar$20.5K@ 73.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Rafael Jodar (-3.5) vs Valentin Vacherot (+3.5)
64.0¢$9.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar
1.55¢$512priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vacherot vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5
99.55¢$458priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valentin Vacherot vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢$172priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vacherot vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5
99.95¢$73priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vacherot vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5
99.55¢$6priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vacherot vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vacherot vs. Jodar: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampRafael Jodar$84.0K
BUY VWAP 75.15¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesRafael Jodar$24.3K
BUY VWAP 54.52¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.