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Cali: Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $50.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $231.7KEvent: Cali: Matias Soto vs Samuel Heredia
56.5¢
Matias Soto
43.5¢
Samuel Heredia
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets60Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:159 trades$38.3K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Samuel Heredia · $12.3K net·13 wallets·$20.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSamuel Heredia$2.1K@ 55¢·0x076d…8d4c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Matias Soto SETUP
What the tape says

Matias Soto pressure: $1.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.5K
6h
−$14.4K
tracked
$38.3K

13 verified profitable wallets: Samuel Heredia · $12.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 55

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Matias Soto or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matias Soto and Samuel Heredia in the Cali, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Samuel Heredia. This market will resolve to 'Samuel Heredia' if Samuel Heredia advances against Matias Soto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Samuel Heredia UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $5.1K → $870 · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matias Soto; negative values favor Samuel Heredia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatias Soto · $1.5K
6hSamuel Heredia · $14.4K
24hSamuel Heredia · $14.4K

Matias Soto price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matias Soto price. Samuel Heredia fills are converted to the complementary Matias Soto probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h47.9¢▲ above by 8.6pp
VWAP 7d47.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matias Soto price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1
75¢
$1
70¢
$197
65¢
$5.8K
60¢
$2.7K
55¢
← now
$8.6K
50¢
$3.3K
45¢
$1.9K
40¢
$4.3K
35¢
$24
30¢
$4.9K
25¢
$4.5K
20¢
$2.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.