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Lyon Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Kyrian Jacquet

● quote 53 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $852.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $429.8KEvent: Lyon Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Kyrian Jacquet
10.0¢
Matteo Berrettini
99.9¢
Kyrian Jacquet
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets64Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:147 trades$157.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Kyrian Jacquet · $24.9K net·14 wallets·$39.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKyrian Jacquet$25.8K@ 94¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$208
6h
−$27.9K
tracked
$157.2K

14 verified profitable wallets: Kyrian Jacquet · $24.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +31.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 53 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 58 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 31.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Berrettini and Kyrian Jacquet in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Kyrian Jacquet. This market will resolve to 'Kyrian Jacquet' if Kyrian Jacquet advances against Matteo Berrettini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $11.4K gross
0xa0dc…586c2 linked markets · $2.4K gross
Donkoo2 linked markets · $37 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Kyrian Jacquet@ 69.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Matteo Berrettini DOWN 12.0pp · near-book depth $29 → $286 · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Berrettini; negative values favor Kyrian Jacquet. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatteo Berrettini · $208
6hKyrian Jacquet · $27.9K
24hKyrian Jacquet · $28.6K

Matteo Berrettini price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Berrettini price. Kyrian Jacquet fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Berrettini probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current10.0¢
VWAP 24h34.2¢▼ below by 24.2pp
VWAP 7d34.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matteo Berrettini price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$6.1K
60¢
$19.6K
55¢
$10.0K
50¢
$10.6K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$16.9K
30¢
$54.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$56
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$26.5K
0¢
$12.6K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLKyrian Jacquet$25.8K@ 94.0¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKyrian Jacquet$10.0K@ 66.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKyrian Jacquet$10.2K@ 37.3¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseKyrian Jacquet$19.1K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cKyrian Jacquet$17.8K
BUY VWAP 42.2¢·8 fills
yesmateKyrian Jacquet$13.2K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesKyrian Jacquet$11.8K
BUY VWAP 65.4¢·15 fills
LuzzzerKyrian Jacquet$10.2K
BUY VWAP 37.3¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Kyrian Jacquet$10.1K
BUY VWAP 65.5¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.