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Lyon Open, Qualification: Valentin Royer vs Clement Tabur

● quote 280 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $97.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $286.9KEvent: Lyon Open, Qualification: Valentin Royer vs Clement Tabur
1.0¢
Valentin Royer
99.9¢
Clement Tabur
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets30Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$125.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 312 min agoofficial metadata 280 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Valentin Royer · $7.8K net·6 wallets·$26.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLClement Tabur$35.4K@ 71¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$22.5K
tracked
$125.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: Valentin Royer · $7.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 280 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 312 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 280 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Royer and Clement Tabur in the Lyon Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Valentin Royer' if Valentin Royer advances against Clement Tabur. This market will resolve to 'Clement Tabur' if Clement Tabur advances against Valentin Royer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2ffd…e7c62 linked markets · $10 gross
0x0d10…780b2 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Clement Tabur@ 73.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +28.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Clement Tabur@ 65.0¢7h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Valentin Royer@ 63.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -25.0pp1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Valentin Royer DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $3.6K → $22 · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Valentin Royer; negative values favor Clement Tabur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hValentin Royer · $0
6hValentin Royer · $22.5K
24hValentin Royer · $37.6K

Valentin Royer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Valentin Royer price. Clement Tabur fills are converted to the complementary Valentin Royer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h42.8¢▼ below by 41.8pp
VWAP 7d42.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Valentin Royer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$4.7K
65¢
$29.2K
60¢
$1.5K
55¢
$9.3K
50¢
$0
45¢
$16.5K
40¢
$6
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
$2.8K
25¢
$48.3K
20¢
$2.1K
15¢
$5.2K
10¢
$12
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.1K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLClement Tabur$35.4K@ 71.4¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYClement Tabur$10.0K@ 51.6¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstClement Tabur$24.0K
BUY VWAP 48.9¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesValentin Royer$17.0K
BUY VWAP 67.2¢·16 fills
robustmstValentin Royer$12.0K
BUY VWAP 65.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.