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Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

Sports→BaseballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $8.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $80.2KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
79.5¢
Tampa Bay Rays
20.5¢
Cleveland Guardians
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:38 trades$25.1K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 67 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Cleveland Guardians · $186 net·2 wallets·$204 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays$3.8K@ 47¢·0xNuttawut

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
DISPUTED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-18 21:08 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians".

Read full resolution rules

This event refers to Game 5 of the ALCS originally scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on October 17, 2026. This game has been rescheduled to October 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Please refer to mlb.com for the latest start time information. In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for October 18 at 5:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 1d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo3 linked markets · $48.0K gross
urhfrhchj1231233 linked markets · $46.6K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $31.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET STATE2d ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Cleveland Guardians UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $2.3K → $895 · 40s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tampa Bay Rays; negative values favor Cleveland Guardians. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTampa Bay Rays · $0
6hTampa Bay Rays · $3.9K
24hCleveland Guardians · $8.4K

Tampa Bay Rays price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tampa Bay Rays price. Cleveland Guardians fills are converted to the complementary Tampa Bay Rays probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current79.5¢
VWAP 24h48.1¢▲ above by 31.4pp
VWAP 7d48.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tampa Bay Rays price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
← now
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.6K
55¢
$2.5K
50¢
$5.9K
45¢
$10.2K
40¢
$21
35¢
$1.8K
30¢
$0
25¢
$2.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooCleveland Guardians$12.3K
BUY VWAP 49.6¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.