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Cowboys vs. Packers

● quote 16s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $2.8MOfficial 24h Vol: $264.1KEvent: Cowboys vs. Packers
50.5¢
Cowboys
49.5¢
Packers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$123.1K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCowboys$25.0K@ 50¢·wan123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Packers pressure: $25.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$25.2K
6h
+$11.9K
tracked
$123.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Cowboys · $6.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Packers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 00:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if Cowboys win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Packers" if Packers win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Cowboys and Packers, scheduled for October 18 at 8:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if Cowboys win the game. This market will resolve to "Packers" if Packers win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BrotherObama2 linked markets · $52.3K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $18.4K gross
maz262 linked markets · $11.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cowboys@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 51.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Cowboys@ 50.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cowboys; negative values favor Packers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPackers · $25.2K
6hCowboys · $11.9K
24hCowboys · $39.4K

Cowboys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cowboys price. Packers fills are converted to the complementary Cowboys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h49.9¢▲ above by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d49.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cowboys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$106.0K
45¢
$36.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPackers$17.0K@ 50.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCowboys$24.0K@ 50.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPackers$15.0K@ 51.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYCowboys$10.0K@ 50.0¢
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN0xdaef…54e9
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYCowboys$25.0K@ 50.0¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Packers (-1.5)
46.5¢$67.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Packers (-7.5)
23.5¢$61.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cowboys vs. Packers: O/U 53.5
50.5¢$49.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
35.5¢$29.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cowboys vs. Packers: O/U 52.5
53.5¢$7.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Packers (-6.5)
0.0¢$5.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cowboys vs. Packers: O/U 59.5
33.5¢$312priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cowboys vs. Packers: O/U 54.5
47.0¢$182priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaPackers$32.0K
BUY VWAP 50.5¢·2 fills
wan123Cowboys$25.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Cowboys$24.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
BreakTheBankCowboys$10.9K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·2 fills
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCowboys$10.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.