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Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?

Sports→SoccerSettlement: YESLiquidity: $1.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $7.9MEvent: Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:2025 trades$9.3M tracked2% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 364 min agoofficial metadata 70 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.6M net·33 wallets(2🐋)·$7.9M gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$4.6M@ 100¢·joseph00677

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-18 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 18, 2026 If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Flaznorp3 linked markets · $157.3K gross
YEEES-but-why2 linked markets · $80.7K gross
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $75.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 91.0¢7h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 76.0¢7h ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 36.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 36.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 18.5pp · near-book depth $552 → $62 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $4.8M
24hNO · $2.0M

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h83.7¢▲ above by 16.3pp
VWAP 7d83.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$4.9M
90¢
$204.1K
85¢
$46.9K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.1M
60¢
$2.8M
55¢
$16.5K
50¢
$101.7K
45¢
$19.6K
40¢
$21.4K
35¢
$8.1K
30¢
$11.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$33.1K@ 99.9¢
Telawin0xf363…c197
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLYES$32.3K@ 99.9¢
Velin2170x9a5e…cd58
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLYES$4.6M@ 99.9¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLYES$99.2K@ 99.9¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLYES$25.4K@ 91.5¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYYES$18.1K@ 91.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$12.2K@ 91.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$27.3K@ 91.0¢
phkjjd0x8fbc…5c63
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$15.2K@ 91.0¢
b39080xc776…1e92
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$15.0K@ 54.0¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$18.0K@ 54.4¢
Telawin0xf363…c197
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$11.1K@ 63.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 36.0¢
YEEES-but-why0x9052…3c2d
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$11.5K@ 36.0¢
YEEES-but-why0x9052…3c2d
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$21.6K@ 36.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$18.0K@ 36.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$18.0K@ 36.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$46.8K@ 36.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$18.0K@ 36.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$30.3K@ 36.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$149.7K@ 36.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$64.5K@ 35.0¢
Mooseborzoiii0x57a8…ebc2
🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLNO$16.9K@ 35.0¢
MrDouche0xc2c8…5471
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$64.3K@ 65.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYNO$36.0K@ 36.0¢
bomber0xd776…ffeb
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$399.1K@ 65.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$65.0K@ 65.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$37.7K@ 65.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$27.3K@ 65.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$195.0K@ 65.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$65.0K@ 65.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$1.0M@ 64.9¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$92.4K@ 65.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$542.1K@ 64.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$537.4K@ 63.0¢
joseph006770xcdcc…935a
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYNO$26.4K@ 40.0¢
TheOpportunist0x7d2f…ef1a
🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYNO$25.0K@ 40.0¢
migrodrigues0x9a93…2793
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYYES$40.0K@ 63.0¢
Jer-Predict0xd391…b109
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 63.0¢0x4607…d542🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYNO$17.6K@ 38.0¢
plonker20260x0a39…b0b9
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

joseph00677Yes$3.0M
BUY VWAP 64.4¢·11 fills
MooseborzoiiiNo$366.9K
BUY VWAP 35.8¢·8 fills
FlaznorpYes$104.5K
BUY VWAP 85.2¢·28 fills
Supremeleader75Yes$64.5K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesNo$40.5K
BUY VWAP 48.1¢·47 fills
Jer-PredictYes$40.0K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
FlaznorpNo$37.9K
BUY VWAP 34.8¢·55 fills
bomberNo$36.0K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesYes$33.2K
BUY VWAP 78.2¢·20 fills
YEEES-but-whyNo$30.5K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.