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Spread: Raiders (-3.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: BillsLiquidity: $80.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $19Event: Bills vs. Raiders
0.0¢
Raiders payout
100.0¢
Bills payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBills$10.6K@ 80¢·HomeRunHazard

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Bills. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-18 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bills".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Raiders, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Raiders" if the Raiders win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bills". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 27d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 27d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Raiders; negative values favor Bills. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRaiders · $0
6hRaiders · $83
24hBills · $10.1K

Raiders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Raiders price. Bills fills are converted to the complementary Raiders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h19.85¢▼ below by 19.9pp
VWAP 7d19.85¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Raiders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$10.8K
15¢
$10.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBills$10.6K@ 80.0¢
HomeRunHazard0x5268…135d
🐋—28 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.