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Counter-Strike: Alliance vs magic - Map 2 Winner

● quote 3 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.5MOfficial 24h Vol: $709.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: Alliance vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
99.9¢
Alliance
8.0¢
magic
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:147 trades$313.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alliance · $104.7K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$140.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlliance$29.2K@ 43¢·IMAREALPERSON

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Alliance pressure: $4.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.0K
6h
+$175.7K
tracked
$313.9K

10 verified profitable wallets: Alliance · $104.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +29.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 29.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alliance or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-10 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win Map 2 against magic.

•This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win Map 2 against Alliance.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket final match between Alliance and magic in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B, initially scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win Map 2 against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win Map 2 against Alliance. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 10, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $676.9K gross
0xc74e…e7252 linked markets · $77.2K gross
Parz1vaI2 linked markets · $73.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alliance52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alliance52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alliance52m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alliance55m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: magic DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $508 → $500 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alliance; negative values favor magic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlliance · $4.0K
6hAlliance · $175.7K
24hAlliance · $175.7K

Alliance price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alliance price. magic fills are converted to the complementary Alliance probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h60.8¢▲ above by 39.1pp
VWAP 7d60.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Alliance price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$52.7K
90¢
$1.4K
85¢
$5.0K
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
$13.2K
70¢
$15.6K
65¢
$12.0K
60¢
$13.0K
55¢
$41.2K
50¢
$23.1K
45¢
$30.5K
40¢
$105.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlliance$19.4K@ 99.9¢0xc74e…e725🐋—33 minutes ago
BUYAlliance$11.2K@ 56.0¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlliance$19.9K@ 55.0¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlliance$29.2K@ 43.0¢
IMAREALPERSON0x8c0b…7aa5
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

IMAREALPERSONAlliance$71.6K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·5 fills
cruzNBAAlliance$25.6K
BUY VWAP 64.8¢·11 fills
RN1Alliance$21.1K
BUY VWAP 69.8¢·8 fills
aaaa298Alliance$20.2K
BUY VWAP 61.1¢·6 fills
787-HUEV-W-ZOPEAlliance$17.8K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·3 fills
VibeDoterAlliance$16.6K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·3 fills
6kke1tAlliance$13.5K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·4 fills
0x2c33…0563magic$10.7K
BUY VWAP 54.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.