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US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $550.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $745.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone
50.5¢
Tomas Etcheverry payout
49.5¢
Mariano Navone payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tomas Etcheverry · $49.4K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$68.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTomas Etcheverry$52.9K@ 100¢·kahe

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-11 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Mariano Navone in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Mariano Navone. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Tomas Etcheverry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 1d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Mariano Navone@ 47.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Mariano Navone@ 48.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -24.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Tomas Etcheverry@ 51.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +7.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tomas Etcheverry; negative values favor Mariano Navone. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMariano Navone · $58.7K
6hMariano Navone · $32.7K
24hMariano Navone · $30.4K

Tomas Etcheverry price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tomas Etcheverry price. Mariano Navone fills are converted to the complementary Tomas Etcheverry probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h74.2¢▼ below by 23.7pp
VWAP 7d74.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tomas Etcheverry price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$126.3K
90¢
$14.2K
85¢
$54.4K
80¢
$0
75¢
$15
70¢
$5.1K
65¢
$7.2K
60¢
$17.3K
55¢
$54.4K
50¢
← now
$137.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLTomas Etcheverry$52.9K@ 99.9¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋—1 day ago
SELLTomas Etcheverry$48.3K@ 99.9¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—1 day ago
BUYTomas Etcheverry$43.2K@ 89.3¢
afraz0xca64…4f43
🐋—1 day ago
BUYTomas Etcheverry$10.0K@ 54.9¢0xf559…f462🐋—1 day ago
BUYMariano Navone$23.0K@ 47.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—1 day ago
BUYMariano Navone$30.0K@ 49.3¢
BrotherObama0x8a86…4998
🐋—2 days ago
BUYTomas Etcheverry$17.5K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—2 days ago
BUYMariano Navone$11.4K@ 49.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

afrazTomas Etcheverry$43.2K
BUY VWAP 89.3¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Tomas Etcheverry$30.4K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·4 fills
BrotherObamaMariano Navone$30.0K
BUY VWAP 49.3¢·1 fill
0x78be…bde0Mariano Navone$23.0K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Tomas Etcheverry$15.0K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
AV23IUaMariano Navone$11.4K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
mooseborzoiTomas Etcheverry$10.3K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.