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Liberty vs. James Madison

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $184.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $140.6KEvent: Liberty vs. James Madison
19.5¢
Liberty payout
80.5¢
James Madison payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:26 trades$86.5K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 62%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 996 min agoofficial metadata 964 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:James Madison · $83.6K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$83.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJames Madison$32.4K@ 80¢·ferrariChampions2026

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-05 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Liberty wins, the market will resolve to "Liberty".

•If James Madison wins, the market will resolve to "James Madison".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 12:00PM ET: If Liberty wins, the market will resolve to "Liberty". If James Madison wins, the market will resolve to "James Madison". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 16h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 16h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: James Madison UP 4.7pp · near-book depth $3.4K → $11.0K · 37s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liberty; negative values favor James Madison. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJames Madison · $30.0K
6hJames Madison · $80.7K
24hJames Madison · $80.7K

Liberty price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liberty price. James Madison fills are converted to the complementary Liberty probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h14.3¢▲ above by 5.2pp
VWAP 7d14.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liberty price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$2.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$33.5K
15¢
← now
$13.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$35.9K
0¢
$898

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJames Madison$27.8K@ 95.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYJames Madison$32.4K@ 80.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 19 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026James Madison$60.1K
BUY VWAP 86.3¢·2 fills
RN1James Madison$12.2K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.