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Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula

● quote 10s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $460.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $188.7KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
58.5¢
Coco Gauff
41.5¢
Jessica Pegula
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly46Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets51Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$77.8K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jessica Pegula · $11.2K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$21.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJessica Pegula$16.6K@ 41¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jessica Pegula pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
−$3.5K
tracked
$77.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: Jessica Pegula · $11.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jessica Pegula or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Jessica Pegula. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Pegula' if Jessica Pegula advances against Coco Gauff. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 43.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jessica Pegula@ 42.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Coco Gauff; negative values favor Jessica Pegula. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJessica Pegula · $1.1K
6hJessica Pegula · $3.5K
24hJessica Pegula · $9.0K

Coco Gauff price VWAP

Volume-weighted Coco Gauff price. Jessica Pegula fills are converted to the complementary Coco Gauff probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.5¢
VWAP 24h58.2¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d58.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Coco Gauff price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$77.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJessica Pegula$15.1K@ 42.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYJessica Pegula$16.6K@ 41.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PainfulvoidCoco Gauff$17.0K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·3 fills
CORGI8Jessica Pegula$16.9K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·2 fills
SineNooneEIJessica Pegula$16.6K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.