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Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: —Liquidity: $157.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $304.6KEvent: The International 2026: Winner
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:116 trades$97.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $12.8K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$78.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$39.0K@ 40¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $4.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.2K
6h
−$6.8K
tracked
$97.4K

6 verified profitable wallets: YES · $12.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
Unavailable
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the winner of The International 2026 is not determined by September 6, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team winning 1st place at The International 2026 tournament, scheduled for August 13, 2026 - August 23, 2026. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the winner of The International 2026 is not determined by September 6, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $153.9K gross
yishiwucheng2 linked markets · $11.1K gross
Supremeleader752 linked markets · $10.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 52.5¢9h ago
Outcome checks pending
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 56.5¢11h ago
Outcome checks pending
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 55.5¢15h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 42.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +27.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.4K → $985 · 15s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $4.2K
6hNO · $6.8K
24hYES · $742

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.4¢▲ above by 32.5pp
VWAP 7d50.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$41.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$2.1K
80¢
$0
75¢
$16
70¢
$181
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$88
55¢
$235
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$48.2K
35¢
$1.7K
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$3.9K
20¢
$325
15¢
$24.5K
10¢
$18.9K
5¢
$6.5K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$10.2K@ 99.9¢
dadada220xb517…434b
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$39.0K@ 40.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYNO$21.5K@ 85.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—5 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Yes$39.0K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563No$21.5K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.