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Athletics vs. Houston Astros

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $612.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $694.4KEvent: Athletics vs. Houston Astros
100.0¢
Athletics
0.1¢
Houston Astros
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:102 trades$274.9K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Athletics · $13.4K net·6 wallets(3🐋)·$106.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAthletics$42.7K@ 64¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Houston Astros pressure: $34.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.0K
6h
−$29.7K
tracked
$274.9K

6 verified profitable wallets: Athletics · $13.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +3.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Houston Astros or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Houston Astros, scheduled for August 23 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $32.9K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $8.9K gross
1winstreak12 linked markets · $7.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Athletics@ 96.7¢10m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Athletics10m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Athletics@ 79.9¢19m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Athletics25m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Athletics DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $51 → $45 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Athletics; negative values favor Houston Astros. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHouston Astros · $34.0K
6hHouston Astros · $29.7K
24hHouston Astros · $58.9K

Athletics price VWAP

Volume-weighted Athletics price. Houston Astros fills are converted to the complementary Athletics probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h46.8¢▲ above by 53.1pp
VWAP 7d46.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Athletics price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.7K
90¢
$1.9K
85¢
$16
80¢
$1.3K
75¢
$14.2K
70¢
$8.1K
65¢
$41.2K
60¢
$53.8K
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$11
35¢
$45.9K
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$39.4K
20¢
$36.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.0K
5¢
$21.1K
0¢
$1.4K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAthletics$42.7K@ 64.2¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYHouston Astros$39.3K@ 71.7¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYHouston Astros$33.8K@ 75.3¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYHouston Astros$26.8K@ 30.9¢
jjj19950x2ba6…644c
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYHouston Astros$12.2K@ 95.0¢
curie0xd1ed…d7cb
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAthletics$12.7K@ 38.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYHouston Astros$10.6K@ 62.0¢
dv-pm0x56ac…d77e
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

jjj1995Houston Astros$100.0K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026Athletics$42.7K
BUY VWAP 64.2¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafAthletics$32.6K
BUY VWAP 23.3¢·10 fills
HomeRunHazardAthletics$14.6K
BUY VWAP 67.6¢·3 fills
curieHouston Astros$12.2K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill
dv-pmHouston Astros$10.6K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.